Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

You have seen areas being locked down during this. eg no one in or out of a city/region without approval.

 

I see. Without references it's difficult to know what previous incident's he's talking about - maybe he means a sustained stigmatisation of an area once the quarantine has ended? His concern about vigilantes imposing quarantines seems a little out of the blue.

You're right that the fact that Wessely opinion piece with no references was one of the seven bits of evidence cited is a worry.

 

UK needs someone like this . No bullshit
https://twitter.com/user/status/1240789001428185088

 

So many comments about the UK situation is very much relevant to the same in Sweden. I'm really worried, sad and frustrated Too slow, too little, no real sense of urgency, the public health authority publishes information that clashes with the advice from WHO etc...

For example, the majority of the confirmed cases* are reportedly those who caught the virus while on (skiing) holiday in northern Italy and Austria. What did that teach us? Soon there's the Easter break when lots and lots of Swedish people usually go travelling across the country, many of them to skiing resorts, the big cities and other popular holiday spots...

*) Sweden is testing very few people nowadays, currently only hospitalised people and healthcare professionals, I believe? Which means that the numbers are no longer meaningful.

How is the government handling this major risk? From what I can tell, apparently by saying "spending time outdoors and in the mountains is good for your health", "Please consider whether your trip really is necessary?". Already today there has been news articles about a confirmed case at one of the largest ski-resorts, someone who reportedly went to a popular après-ski event Meanwhile, on the other side of the border, Norwegian ski-resorts have reportedly already closed for the time being. All this while large parts of the world are practising strict social distancing and/or are in various degrees of lock-down...

The spread in Sweden seems to still be worst in the three largest cities, and I can't bear the thought of what will happen after the Easter holidays...

The public health authority is getting lots of criticism from experts as well as the public, but they stand firm. Many are urging them to change their strategy "like the UK recently did", to try and stop the epidemic (not just try to slow it down a little bit).

 

I was initially optimistic about things here in the US. While some states have brilliant measures, there's still an issue of interstate travel, which needs to be stopped immediately, and family coming to visit each other and commuting, etc. and the half measures (only groups of under 50, work from home if you can) lasted too long. I expect to surpass Italy and even China in a week or two. Many people are still out and about, millions.

 

I have a feeling that when the time comes to it, if they start with their yo-yo strategy and deaths start to increase once again (while other countries are probably doing the opposite), they’ll be forced to backtrack and do a U-turn, all the while saying the “science has changed”. Just like with the herd immunity strategy.

 

Information on this is spreading.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1240021259435610126

 

https://twitter.com/user/status/1241250825902661632

 

Hmm...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

It's already been re-titled since it was first published, originally it was "Have UK experts over-egged coronavirus deaths?"

The author is coming in for some considerable criticism on Twitter
https://twitter.com/user/status/1241259814052921344

 

Yes, it's not how many have died but how many will die. Given how rapid the rate of rise of known cases, presumably when someone dies you have to compare with known cases at the time they contracted the illness?

 

Covid-19 and the Stiff Upper Lip — The Pandemic Response in the United Kingdom, https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2005755

 

https://twitter.com/user/status/1241087484899065857



https://twitter.com/user/status/1241086480690425857

 

The figures for coronavirus are eye-watering. But what is not clear - because the modellers did not map this - is to what extent the deaths would have happened without coronavirus.

Yes, well, all people die, so why bother being a doctor?

From what I can see there is no similarity between coronavirus deaths and the deaths from influenza that occur in the very frail. These are not end of life people in care homes barely able to feed themselves. A lot of them are people leading normal lives who happen to be diabetic or have cardiac problems.

 

We don't have full data, there is uncertainty. Ergo, you cannot believe any of it? Where have I seen that tactic before?

Take something self-evident, like we don't have all the data on survivors, non-survivors, and survivors with ongoing problems. This is obvious. Then imply there is nothing to see here. Hmmm ...

This sounds an awful lot like the messages from Big Tobacco.

All you need to do to see the seriousness is look at the data from hospitals in Lombardy. How often do modern and well equipped medical systems get overwhelmed? How is this illness as usual? How many flu seasons see makeshift hospitals springing up?

Right now I am becoming more interested in the survivors and how they are doing. Lung problems seem to occur, but in how many, and how severe? These people may need help long after we contain the initial infection or it burns itself out.

On a good front, one engineer seems to have figured out how a respirator can be rigged to treat as many as nine patients at the same time. Progress, if its a workable solution. I hope so.

 

More from Hilda Bastian:

"FIASCO" REBUTTAL POSTSCRIPT: WHAT ABOUT THAT 0.3% CASE FATALITY ESTIMATE?
http://hildabastian.net/index.php/8-secondary/88

Also, an interesting article on Buzzfeed by Alex Wickham: 10 Days That Changed Britain: “Heated” Debate Between Scientists Forced Boris Johnson to Act on Coronavirus:
https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/al...oronavirus-approach?__twitter_impression=true

 

This is the official Public Health England tracker site (mobile version).

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ae5dda8f86814ae99dde905d2a9070ae

What I still don't understand is that there are numerous regions who are still way down in single digits of reported cases. The bulk of cases are in London. Surely tracing contacts and testing for asymptomatic carriers would not be such an onerous task in these places and then they could potentially be declared 'clean' which would massively help with infrastructure issues. I honestly don't understand why we aren't doing this.