Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

I thought that in supermarkets people are not staying for a longer time, and the virus would not have a good chance to concentrate.

I wonder though if the Chinese advise to go shopping only every third day might be part of the success. And did they give any permission, like with the beginning characters of the name. And what´s about the workers there?

And spouses may differ from other family members in that they tend to sleep in proximity.

 

I found the source....

"Among 200 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China, factors that increased the risk for developing acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and for dying include older age, neutrophilia, and higher lactate dehydrogenase and D-dimer levels, according to a JAMA Internal Medicine study."

https://www.jwatch.org/fw116450/2020/03/15/covid-19-new-who-guidance-ards-risk-factors-mass

 

My understanding of what these mean in the context of that pre-print.

So they are looking at transmission of Covid-19 at particular events. The person who turns up at that event infected, and then who spreads it to other people, is the source of primary transmission. Those people now infected, and then who spread it to more people, are the source of secondary transmission.

Someone infected by Covid-19.

 

Singaporians are very obedient/compliant when it comes to regulations. eg where they can and cannot cross the street, and the whole country is very regulated.

 

This is my understanding as well, thank you for having put your´s, and your words.
"Primary cases" then are the sources of primary transmission, and secondary cases likewise.


This Chinese publication about the very subject of corona cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0251_article says:

So they are referring specifically to the location where the virus has been caught and don´t look at more small time windows, in this publication.

But in the publication Nishiura et al this specific understanding would not make sense. Here the secondary transmission is simply a transmission after the event they looked at (specifically, a primary transmission in closed enviroments).

 

Quite, and think how quickly and effectively political parties were on twitter/internet when it came to electioneering, it can easily be done, so why oh why are they not using these mediums? And of course communicating for those who aren't on twitter/internet, campaigns need to factor in them too, often the most vulnerable, poorest in society.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52017451

 

This study (not peer reviewed) found that the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio predicts severe illness in patients with Covid-19:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.10.20021584v1

 

This analysis of 196 covid-19 critical care admissions in England, Wales & N. Ireland was being discussed on the UK news yesterday. You can download it as a pdf from here (click on "report"):

https://www.icnarc.org/About/Latest...-On-196-Patients-Critically-Ill-With-Covid-19

Median age of these ICU-admitted patients (IQR): 64 (52, 73)

70.1% male

Most were previously independent:

As far as I can see, this means that most ICU-admitted UK patients did not have previous severe comorbidities:

BMI data is also provided for the ICU-admitted covid-19 patients in UK:
Body mass index, n (%)
<18.5 1 (0.6)
18.5-<25 49 (27.7)
25-<30 56 (31.6)
30-<40 58 (32.8)
40+ 13 (7.3)

It looks like the mean BMI for 64 year olds in the UK is around 28/29:

Wishing all those in critical care and those looking after them the very best.

 

There is a twitter thread too.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1242151818014216193

 

Just to share my recent experience of Singapore.

I arrived there early Jan. Before entering the work place, I was asked if I had flown from China or if I had any symptoms of a flu/fever. Everyday I had to fill in the same form. I didn't link this to coronavirus at the time because early Jan nobody was thinking about that in Europe. This was a full two weeks before the first case in Singapore. There was no mention of any social isolation at this time but face masks and sanitizers were in demand.

By the time the first case occurred in Singapore I had left so the following I have heard from colleagues who were there.

Every building registered who was entering /leaving. Temperature was checked twice a day everyday by everyone in work.
Public events and mass gatherings incl religious, were cancelled.
Nobody went out to bars or restaurants and people got their shopping delivered.
Anyone who arrived from China had a 14 day isolation period. Temperature screening was introduced at all entry points to Singapore.

I don't know how things may have changed since because my last update was around end of Feb.
I believe they subsequently cancelled any short term visits to Singapore and residents returning from anywhere in the world had to do a 14 day isolation.

But it seems if you act early and people comply with the common sense measures then that goes a long way.

Singapore have experience of viral outbreaks so they were ready to act and prepared well before the first case.

 

I seem to have an ability to sleep through those. It must be a superpower.

Since Fauci was not at that one,


https://twitter.com/user/status/1242194693385043981

 

I don’t think it’s fake news: from what I understand, They’ve already tested people; however it was a small sample size so far. They were planning on testing the entire population with the help of the company mentioned in the article, but since there’s been a shortage from that company from the 18th March, it looks like that won’t be going ahead or not as quickly. Their rate of 1% I think, (since the sample size is quite small); is probably not accurate until they test lots more people.

 

Yes I think that means that neutrophilic is an indicator that the body has already got into a serious systemic reaction phase - similarly LDH and D-dimer. D-dimer is something that appears when fibrinogen starts to clot - a sign of a serious complication called diffuse intravascular coagulation.

 

A women (mid 30's) was interviewed on CNN last night tested positive for COVID19 and recovered. She had Lyme D and deals with underlying autoimmune issues, she recovered without any complications from the virus.

 

I donated my (10) N95 masks to my local walk-in clinic yesterday.

 

Well, whatever means the govt is using it simply isn't getting through to people.

My husband out walking the dog - at first very quiet - it's a huge area, Anyone who was there kept themselves to themselves. On the route home, he happened to glance back and saw a big group of at least 10 people clustered together - I very much doubt that's a single household.

The a text from my niece who is in an at risk group - she's busily working from home and, looking out her window this morning, the florists across the road is open.