Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

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Maybe the western world needs a dose of reality. Maybe people need to realise that in order to stay alive for 70 years with luxuries like air travel and world cruises you need a medical system that has the legal power to isolate those with dangerous diseases.

Maybe it's time to start curbing some of these luxuries anyway given climate change. I can see how being legally forced into quarantine might in certain cases be necessary, but only as one part of an overall strategy.
 
I can see how being legally forced into quarantine might in certain cases be necessary, but only as one part of an overall strategy.

Yes, part of an overall strategy. But if the strategy is to return to something near previous economic activity that is going to require getting your country virus free so that you can be on the list of accessible countries for other states free of virus. Muddling along with a few cases here and there will be economic disaster. Getting virus free will very likely require centralised quarantine at some point.
 


Cleaners, caterers and other low-paid workers are still being made to show up to work in the Houses of Parliament despite the COVID-19 lockdown

Cleaners – including around 60 employed by outsourcing giant Atalian Servest – are being forced to go in day and night, even though parliament is not sitting and there is nothing for them to do.

These workers have asked to be furloughed as they are concerned about catching and spreading the virus both at work and on their commute, say their union, Unite. But their outsourced employers have refused this request.
 
I have not seen any reliable evidence that millions are carriers. Certainly there will be more infectious people than are recorded.

Whats the point of mass testing then?

If one buys into the going into homes WHO idea and rounding people up whats the point of just waiting until people are terribly ill surely by then grandad and granny (and any other number of people) have been infected by that person who could have tested positive without having symptoms yet.

Presumably those tens/hundreds of thousands who may be rounded up will include someone elses grandchildren and not ones own.

The whole point is why would you round people up from their houses when we have no way of identifying who is a carrier or not.

At that stage I would envisage perhaps initially tends of thousands and then thousands. Tens of thousands should be practical. The isolation units do not need to be anything very fancy. A hundred units across the country with a few hundred beds each would be enough. There are almost certainly enough conference centres to do the job and they are currently empty.

Ah I see basic units that get people rounded up and locked inside by order.
 
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Yes, part of an overall strategy. But if the strategy is to return to something near previous economic activity that is going to require getting your country virus free so that you can be on the list of accessible countries for other states free of virus. Muddling along with a few cases here and there will be economic disaster. Getting virus free will very likely require centralised quarantine at some point.

I was assuming that if they did a test, trace and quarantine system coupled with the lock down then that would be a relatively short time (6-8 weeks) till they could relax things but keeping the test, trace etc in place afterwards. But I'm fully expecting the lockdown to last a year or more as they won't do the tracing perhaps with a disasterous relaxation in the middle of it.
 
most likely a stupid question but how long are asymptomatic carriers infectious for? Does the virus just 'run its course' in these people and disappear?
I heard of a case where they still tested positive for the virus some 37 days after "recovery". This does not mean they were infectious, nor is this necessarily right, but it is something that scientists need to look at.
 
I heard of a case where they still tested positive for the virus some 37 days after "recovery". This does not mean they were infectious, nor is this necessarily right, but it is something that scientists need to look at.

Or was it a bad test.

The WHO is giving the isolate 14 days after the end of symptoms as they see a risk people are still infectious after recovery I'm not sure what data that was based on.
 
I wonder how that would be for pwME?

I was thinking about this.
Either, they make an exception for PWME or those with severe neurological conditions with sensory impairments/ those who absolutely must stay at home and be allowed their usual carers
Or
We could be allocated a side room in the central quarantine, if severely/very severely ill, will need usual carers or carers (in full PPE)
 
I was thinking about this.
Either, they make an exception for PWME or those with severe neurological conditions with sensory impairments/ those who absolutely must stay at home and be allowed their usual carers
Or
We could be allocated a side room in the central quarantine, if severely/very severely ill, will need usual carers or carers (in full PPE)
My worry is that, given how misunderstood and mistreated many pwME are in hospital situations normally anyway, I suspect it might be significantly worse in such quarantine conditions.
 
Or was it a bad test.

The WHO is giving the isolate 14 days after the end of symptoms as they see a risk people are still infectious after recovery I'm not sure what data that was based on.

Well thats a point isnt it especialy when you consider this.....

We are aware that contaminations of the nature you mentioned have been observed by several primers and probes manufacturers around the world after they produced SARS-COV2 positive controls.


Read more: https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/31/test...ontaminated-coronavirus-12481933/?ito=cbshare


.........and the clustefuck of how they are reporting deaths caused by coronavirus rather than with it.....

According to Prof Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to Italy’s minister of health, the country’s mortality rate is far higher due to demographics - the nation has the second oldest population worldwide - and the manner in which hospitals record deaths

But Prof Ricciardi added that Italy’s death rate may also appear high because of how doctors record fatalities.

“The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.

On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...se/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/
 
I was thinking about this.
Either, they make an exception for PWME or those with severe neurological conditions with sensory impairments/ those who absolutely must stay at home and be allowed their usual carers
Or
We could be allocated a side room in the central quarantine, if severely/very severely ill, will need usual carers or carers (in full PPE)

I think it would still be a nightmare. Even in a side room you'll get noise and if it's a make shift set up that'll be even noisier.

Inability to control levels of light.

Then there's sensitivity to smell and so on.

Plus diet. It's not that I eat weird stuff. It's just I have to be very careful about certain food combinations or meal planning so I don't overload on certain ingredients and so on. That wouldn't be possible & after 7 days I would be struggling with that alone.
 
I think it would still be a nightmare. Even in a side room you'll get noise and if it's a make shift set up that'll be even noisier.

Inability to control levels of light.

Then there's sensitivity to smell and so on.

Plus diet. It's not that I eat weird stuff. It's just I have to be very careful about certain food combinations or meal planning so I don't overload on certain ingredients and so on. That wouldn't be possible & after 7 days I would be struggling with that alone.

Yes and ME isnt the only illness out there that would be terribly contraindicated especially by a lock up in a WHO camp. Especially as they will not be hospitals or be in a position to provide specific dietary needs or protect people from other "campmates".

How about if the docs in such places decide ME isn't a real illness and use the new power to section individuals using only one doctor on that basis.

What if one is mildy affected by the virus and they get locked up with heavily infected people at the same time we dont even know if one can get reinfected.

Presumably one would have to share half a dozen toilets with hundreds of people and exactly what kind of shower/bathing facilities would they have?

Presumably people would have less access to fresh air and natural sunlight.

It sounds like a disaster recipe for disease spreading of alsorts.
 
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My stepmum told me today that a friend ' s daughter who works as a kind of trouble shooter/ project manager contracted to NHS is currently sourcing locations for convalesing people, so perhaps the penny has dropped ...
 
I forgot if this has been posted today



This was a “hard hit” area of Germany:


“How many people have really been infected by the coronavirus? In one German town a preliminary answer is in: about 14%.

The municipality of Gangelt, near the border with the Netherlands, was hard hit by covid-19 after a February carnival celebration drew thousands to the town, turning it into an accidental petri dish.

Now, after searching blood from 500 residents for antibodies to the virus, scientists at a nearby university say they have a preliminary idea of how many people were actually infected.”
 
More about the BBC article from earlier about those in the passport office being told to go to work...

LEAKED HOME OFFICE CALL
Reveals Government Wants Economy to ‘Continue Running’
As ‘We Will All Get’ COVID-19 Anyway


Leaked recordings of a Home Office conference call on Tuesday, exclusively obtained by Byline Times, reveal that the Government has all but given up in its fight against the Coronavirus and is intent on simply finding “a method of managing it within the population”.

The recordings show Home Office Deputy Science Advisor Rupert Shute stating repeatedly that the Government believes “we will all get” COVID-19 eventually. The call further implied that the Government now considers hundreds of thousands of deaths unavoidable over a long-term period consisting of multiple peaks of the disease.

Premature Defeatism
While urging the importance of reducing the burden on the NHS by staying at home, Shute downplayed the risk of people contracting the virus at work.

He said: “It’s perfectly okay to carry on around your business. And it’s vitally important that you do as there’s a whole bunch of supply chains and the economy that needs to continue running… So carrying on with your normal work is not putting you in harms way anymore so than staying at home or going out shopping. So I keep coming back to this point that we are all going to get this at some point. And it’s about making sure that we have a really strong NHS there to support us when we do get sick.”

The policy being communicated by the Home Office privately among Government staffers is at odds with Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s statement at a press conference three weeks ago that the next 12 weeks could “turn the tide of this disease”.

Selective transcripts of the recordings were published by BBC News and widely reported across the British press from there. But the BBC News story focused primarily on fears that the Home Office’s insistence on staff showing up to work for Her Majesty’s Passport Office would put them at heightened danger of contracting COVID-19.

While valid, this angle failed to cover the leak’s wider revelations regarding the Government’s broader strategy. A fuller analysis of leaked recordings obtained by Byline Times reveals that the Government remains committed to the idea that the vast majority of the UK population will contract COVID-19, making a minimum number of deaths inevitable, albeit over a longer period of time.

Using the Government’s own lowest estimate of a fatality rate at around 0.5%, this confirms that it has resigned itself to the expectation that some 264,000 Britons will inevitably die in ensuing months and years from the disease.

...

Reflecting on the “reality of the situation”, he said that “we will all be exposed to it at some point”. According to the “current modelling we are working on, 80% will get it – of that, a large portion won’t notice that they have it. Another substantial portion will have very, very mild symptoms. And a small portion will have a very significant reaction”.

Shute repeatedly insisted that “we can’t hide away from it forever, but we can manage the way in which we are exposed”.“

There is more about the leaked recording, (edit: including saying that the lockdown itself is causing other forms of death, trying to reassure people who live with vulnerable people that it’s still good to go to work, and quoting made up science as to how long the virus survives on surfaces), what was said, here:

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/04/09/...e-running-as-we-will-all-get-covid-19-anyway/

(Also reported here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...d-of-taking-cavalier-approach-to-staff-safety)
 
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I suspect the convalescing may be aimed at the gap in social care provision .
If they have been in hospital they have probably already been tested?
In my county they've taken over the premises of the vacant care homes the council previously closed! This is how they've been able to free up hospital beds that were taken up by frail elderly people for whom it has 'normally' taken months for the council to arrange social care/care home placements...You couldn't make it up!
 
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