Is there now a pattern over the year of Covid incidence (UK)?

Discussion in 'Epidemiology (incidence, prevalence, prognosis)' started by Sasha, Nov 28, 2024.

  1. Sasha

    Sasha Senior Member (Voting Rights)

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    I'm still shielding from Covid as best I can but need to book a medical appointment for some treatment within the next six months during which I'll have to be without a mask.

    I'd like to book that appointment for a time when there will be less Covid about, but now that national Covid surveillance is over, is there at least an annual pattern of Covid peaks and troughs that I can use?
     
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  2. Sasha

    Sasha Senior Member (Voting Rights)

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    This ONS page shows some Covid test result graphs over the course of the past year, based on what seems like fairly scrappy surveillance. The monthly incidence looks weird - I can understand a winter peak but not the summer one.
     
  3. NelliePledge

    NelliePledge Moderator Staff Member

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    Summer one possibly due to transmission as more people travel, especially by air, for summer holidays, also take part in large events like music festivals.
     
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  4. MarcNotMark

    MarcNotMark Senior Member (Voting Rights)

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    Here in the Netherlands the virus amount in the sewage water is measured, this is from the past few years.
    It seems generally weeks 18-22 (May) have the lowest concentrations, no guarantee for next year of course ;)


    SC 2024-11-28 at 14.46.44.jpg
     
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  5. mango

    mango Senior Member (Voting Rights)

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    Dr Lucky Tran has posted a bit about this, mostly based on data in the US I believe. You can follow him on social media (Twitter, Instagram and/or BlueSky) for more info.

    Here's one of his posts on the topic:

    https://www.instagram.com/luckytran/p/C9BBypiOyK9/

    Here's the source he links to in his post:
    http://www.cdc.gov/ncird/whats-new/covid-19-can-surge-throughout-the-year.html
     
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  6. Sasha

    Sasha Senior Member (Voting Rights)

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    Thanks - I wish the UK was this sensible!
     
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  7. Kitty

    Kitty Senior Member (Voting Rights)

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    If I were worried about it, I'd probably ask if the practitioner would be willing to wear a filter mask, and try to book a private Novavax jab about five or six weeks beforehand if affordable. It might be easier to find a pharmacy offering appointments for that during the autumn/winter period.
     
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