Is there now a pattern over the year of Covid incidence (UK)?

[Sasha]

I'm still shielding from Covid as best I can but need to book a medical appointment for some treatment within the next six months during which I'll have to be without a mask.

I'd like to book that appointment for a time when there will be less Covid about, but now that national Covid surveillance is over, is there at least an annual pattern of Covid peaks and troughs that I can use?

 

[Sasha]

This ONS page shows some Covid test result graphs over the course of the past year, based on what seems like fairly scrappy surveillance. The monthly incidence looks weird - I can understand a winter peak but not the summer one.

 

[NelliePledge]

Summer one possibly due to transmission as more people travel, especially by air, for summer holidays, also take part in large events like music festivals.

 

[MarcNotMark]

Here in the Netherlands the virus amount in the sewage water is measured, this is from the past few years.
It seems generally weeks 18-22 (May) have the lowest concentrations, no guarantee for next year of course

 

[mango]

Dr Lucky Tran has posted a bit about this, mostly based on data in the US I believe. You can follow him on social media (Twitter, Instagram and/or BlueSky) for more info.

Here's one of his posts on the topic:

https://www.instagram.com/luckytran/p/C9BBypiOyK9/

Here's the source he links to in his post:
http://www.cdc.gov/ncird/whats-new/covid-19-can-surge-throughout-the-year.html

Summary
What CDC knows

In the United States, respiratory virus illnesses typically peak during the fall and winter. These peaks are due to several factors, including human behaviors and environmental conditions that can affect the ability of viruses to survive and spread.

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, infections with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, have peaked during the winter and also surged at other times of the year. These periodic surges are due in part to the emergence of new variants and decreasing immunity from previous infections and vaccinations. Because the evolution of new variants remains unpredictable, SARS-CoV-2 is not a typical "winter" respiratory virus.

 

[Sasha]

Here in the Netherlands the virus amount in the sewage water is measured, this is from the past few years.
It seems generally weeks 18-22 (May) have the lowest concentrations, no guarantee for next year of course

Thanks - I wish the UK was this sensible!

 

[Kitty]

If I were worried about it, I'd probably ask if the practitioner would be willing to wear a filter mask, and try to book a private Novavax jab about five or six weeks beforehand if affordable. It might be easier to find a pharmacy offering appointments for that during the autumn/winter period.