Esther12
Senior Member (Voting Rights)
Moderator note. Thread moved from:
https://www.s4me.info/threads/persi...-2018-pariante-et-al.7050/page-19#post-130652
I get the impression that a key problem we're facing is that we don't have a good measure of 'fatigue' yet people who've made their careers as experts in 'fatigue' want to try to overlook that. At this point, they know what outcomes they can 'improve', and so they can pre-specify them. Post-PACE all CBT/GET CFS trials will be doing all they can to focus on subjective self-report outcomes in a way that makes it as easy as possible for them to claim they've reached a clinically significant improvement.
Is anyone aware of any literature on that sort of long-term 'Garden of Forking Paths', with researchers choosing primary outcomes for later trials on the basis of what they can get as positive in earlier trials rather than on the basis of what is a the more useful outcome for providing patients with useful information about treatment efficacy? I get the impression that a lot of academics do not view this as a problem.
https://www.s4me.info/threads/persi...-2018-pariante-et-al.7050/page-19#post-130652
FWIW, I do not think the tools that my colleagues and I have developed will be much use here, for a number of reasons that are very boring and technical, plus the simpler one that I have no reason to think that the problems with ME/CFS research involve fabrication or falsification of data; my guess is that they will turn out to be much more about data dredging, or what the statistician Andrew Gelman calls "The Garden of Forking Paths".
I get the impression that a key problem we're facing is that we don't have a good measure of 'fatigue' yet people who've made their careers as experts in 'fatigue' want to try to overlook that. At this point, they know what outcomes they can 'improve', and so they can pre-specify them. Post-PACE all CBT/GET CFS trials will be doing all they can to focus on subjective self-report outcomes in a way that makes it as easy as possible for them to claim they've reached a clinically significant improvement.
Is anyone aware of any literature on that sort of long-term 'Garden of Forking Paths', with researchers choosing primary outcomes for later trials on the basis of what they can get as positive in earlier trials rather than on the basis of what is a the more useful outcome for providing patients with useful information about treatment efficacy? I get the impression that a lot of academics do not view this as a problem.
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