Why the concerns that antibody immunity to coronavirus will only be short-lived?

[Hip]

Does anyone know why there are concerns that antibody immunity to coronavirus will only be short-lived?

Some have suggested the immunity might only last for a few months after a coronavirus infection. Or might only last for one or two years.

I've never heard of a viral infection which exhibits such short antibody immunity. To my knowledge, immunity to viral infection typically lasts in the order of decades rather than months. I believe that's why vaccine boosters are normally recommended every decade.

 

[Ravn]

No references, sorry, just a vague recollection of reading that those estimates are based on other corona virusses which, apparently, typically only induce short- to medium-term immunity.

 

[spinoza577]

I think it is known that the virus mutates very slowly (I have heard it even carries an DNA repair - for the used host DNA - mechanism, don´t know how common this might be though). So from the site of the virus there shouldn´t be any hindering.

I thought it is only said because it has not already been shown, but what Ravn says sounds reasonable. I wonder if this has to do with mutation or if there might be another reason.

 

[Jonathan Edwards]

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2851497/

Gives an idea of background

 

[Ryan31337]

I've also seen comparisons made to other known coronaviruses that, despite not mutating very much at all, appear to reinfect people every few years, causing common colds. Have no idea on the accuracy or relevance of those statements though.

 

[Trish]

On the subject of the common cold, most of which I gather are rhinoviruses, this article explains the apparent lack of immunity as the existence of 160 different common cold strains, so you do develop immunity to each one, but there are still loads more.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-havent-we-cured-the-common-cold-yet/

 

[Sly Saint]

Can You Be Re-Infected After Recovering From Coronavirus? Here's What We Know About COVID-19 Immunity
https://time.com/5810454/coronavirus-immunity-reinfection/

 

[JaneL]

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2851497/

Gives an idea of background

Duration of Antibody Responses after Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Li-Ping Wu,* Nai-Chang Wang,* Yi-Hua Chang,* Xiang-Yi Tian,* Dan-Yu Na,* Li-Yuan Zhang,*Lei Zheng,* Tao Lan,† Lin-Fa Wang,‡ and Guo-Dong Liang

§

Abstract
Among 176 patients who had had severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), SARS-specific antibodies were maintained for an average of 2 years, and significant reduction of immunoglobulin G–positive percentage and titers occurred in the third year. Thus, SARS patients might be susceptible to reinfection >3 years after initial exposure.

Conclusions
To our knowledge, the 3-year follow-up conducted in this study is the longest longitudinal study ever reported. With a large number of patients who had confirmed transmission history (176) and a complete dataset for 18, the level of confidence is high that the results obtained in this study are representative for convalescent SARS patients. Similar results have been reported from longitudinal studies of SARS patients with smaller cohort size (18–98 patients) and shorter follow-up period (240 days to 2 years) (9–14). The general trend of IgM peaking at ≈1 month after symptom onset and IgG peaking at 2–4 months was consistent among different studies.

Our results provide strong evidence that SARS-CoV antibodies are reduced >3 years after the symptom onset. Because antibodies play an important role in protective immunity against SARS-CoV (15), the findings from this study will have important implications with regard to assessing risk for reinfection among previously exposed populations (e.g., hospital staff) and evaluating the duration of antibody-mediated immunity that any candidate vaccine could provide.

That’s very encouraging isn’t it, that the antibody-mediated immunity appears to last as long as 3 years? So medical staff who are returning to work after recovering from the virus should be safe from reinfection, at least until we have a vaccine (which, as I understand, is expected to happen within 3 years)?

 

[Subtropical Island]

Jonathan Edwards said: ↑
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2851497/

Gives an idea of background
Li-Ping Wu,* Nai-Chang Wang,* Yi-Hua Chang,* Xiang-Yi Tian,* Dan-Yu Na,* Li-Yuan Zhang,*Lei Zheng,* Tao Lan,† Lin-Fa Wang,‡ and Guo-Dong Liang

§

Abstract
Among 176 patients who had had severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), SARS-specific antibodies were maintained for an average of 2 years, and significant reduction of immunoglobulin G–positive percentage and titers occurred in the third year. Thus, SARS patients might be susceptible to reinfection >3 years after initial exposure.
Click to expand...
9–14). The general trend of IgM peaking at ≈1 month after symptom onset and IgG peaking at 2–4 months was consistent among different studies.

Our results provide strong evidence that SARS-CoV antibodies are reduced >3 years after the symptom onset. Because antibodies play an important role in protective immunity against SARS-CoV (15), the findings from this study will have important implications with regard to assessing risk for reinfection among previously exposed populations (e.g., hospital staff) and evaluating the duration of antibody-mediated immunity that any candidate vaccine could provide.

Thanks for pulling out the relevant text.