Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

[Wits_End]

Reporting of cases has been changed in the last week. I haven’t checked and my memory is hazy, but basically previous public reporting in the U.K. did not include pillar 2 testing from the community, just pillar 1 ie hospitals, care homes etc. This is because pillar 2 tests are carried out by Deloitte?, a private sector contractor, not the NHS. The contract for this testing somehow didn’t allow for that data to be released to anyone except central UK government, who weren’t sharing. This is why the local Public Health officials and the council in Leicester did not know the extent of the rise in cases in Leicester until shortly before they had to lockdown.

Ah, thanks. I guess that would explain much of it. I was trying to work out what had been done in the past couple of weeks which might account for it.

that doesn't surprise me after seeing the C4 news coverage over the weekend of the party like atmosphere in Soho. They should have banned Londoners from all but essential travel out of London a long time ago and should definitely do it now.

But they wouldn't have had time to develop CV-19 in the intervening days. Not to mention the fact that infection rates in London had been pretty much static for weeks, as far as I can see, so banning Londoners from travelling would have made no sense - unless you'd somehow managed to limit it to just the Covidiots.

 

[AliceLily]

We've had a surge in New Zealanders coming home and quarantine hotels reaching close to capacity. The government has put a hold on flights home for 3 weeks so we can better cope. All those who have already booked flights we be allowed to return but any new bookings will be delayed for three weeks. I think we have had over 25 thousand Kiwis return since the outbreak.

I live near some of the quarantine hotels and this afternoon while catching a bus to the supermarket there was someone on the bus with a huge suitcase. Those leaving quarantine should have tested negative before leaving but I still feel like I should be wearing a mask on the bus. Very few wear a mask now.

I see the state of Victoria in Australia is going into lockdown for six weeks. That's a good amount of time and should get control back as quickly as possible. I hope everyone there does their bit and stays in their own bubble.

 

[alex3619]

I see the state of Victoria in Australia is going into lockdown for six weeks.

There was a report, which I have not confirmed, that the viral genetics of the new cases is almost identical, implying one or a few superspreaders. That is all it takes to start it all over again.

 

[Kalliope]

BMJ: Covid-19: The inside story of the RECOVERY trial

“The UK has really delivered here,” says Martin Landray, deputy chief investigator of RECOVERY. “It involves hospitals from Truro to the Western Isles, Northern Ireland across to King’s Lynn. The patients have been fabulous: they were ill, frightened, alone, and elderly. The success is down to amazing teamwork across the clinical community and the incredible support of patients and their families.”

But global recognition and headlines also bring intense scrutiny. Alongside international praise RECOVERY has drawn criticisms from scientists about transparency and a worrying trend for announcing trial results by press release and without the underlying data.

 

[spinoza577]

I havn´t follow the thread anymore, I only occasionally looked at the wiki pages. Here a video on mortality data from Euromomo and some other ones. Although I think the virus is to be taken seriously, I can´t see any catastrophy. I also couldn´t see any clear evidence in favour of strong measures (and actually the sideeffects may turn out to be seroious enough).

It´s data. I still don´t understand why the EU and the WHO don´t make a summary of data, including the arrangement of lockdowns, as they can be empirically looked at. And also trying an explanation (a reasonable one) on differences seen (maybe initial viral loads).

Ivor Cummins:

Spoiler

 

[mango]

This is from a paywalled article in one of Sweden's most well regarded newspapers, not a tabloid. Absolutely ridiculous Personally, I definitely don't agree with his claims/conclusions.

SvD: Carlson: Coronadrabbat Sverige var en slump
https://www.svd.se/carlson-coronadrabbat-sverige-var-en-slump

The large corona spread in Sweden was due to a "coincidence", says Director General of the Public Health Authority Johan Carlson. Therefore, we should not compare ourselves with the Nordic countries.

It was random, it got this bad by chance?! Nothing to do with the choices the Swedish government and the Publich Health Authority keep making, really?? Do they actually expect us to believe this BS?

There's a copy of the full text available here if you want to read it. Some more quotes:

- We are not really there yet where we are prepared to do a full analysis. This is not politics. It is a mix of policy work and science. This means that we also follow up certain things scientifically to understand, says Carlson.

Was there too much politics in our neighboring countries?
- It is obvious, what we see now, that Denmark open and close borders in the morning and afternoon. There is no science whatsoever in it. After all, they have only made something up. While we have found that it is not the traveling from Sweden that is the problem, it is the social distancing, says Johan Carlson. [...]

One explanation that has emerged is based on research of the virus' gene strains. It has turned out that the virus spread from more countries into Sweden than anyone knew at the time. The corona virus did not only come to Sweden via alpine travelers who hade been to ski resorts in Italy in March.

But, was there really not a single person at the authority who realised early on that the infection was coming into Sweden also from other countries, besides the ones we knew about at the time; China, Italy and Iran?

- Yes, yes, but we have to decide which people should stay at home or report to the health service. Given that we had one million travelers at that time, it was never an option to tell everyone to stay home. When we added Austria, the infection control said that they can not handle this, it will be a lot of extra work. Then came large hordes of people who had been to Austria. [...]

Sweden's travel pattern, is it very different from our Nordic neighbors?

- I don't really know. We will look at it, however it is not travel [that is the problem] but rather if you have a number [of people] that happen to spread it into the population that is not visible, then that's it. [...]

So more travelers do not increase the risk of it spreading in Sweden?
- It may, but it is not certain that it will. [...]

- If you have not had this travel entry influx that we had, the Nordic region is not our object of comparison. Then the comparison should be made with those who have had other major similar outbreaks. Stockholm is the largest metropolitan area in the Nordic countries that happened to get this in. [...]

You say happen to get in, what does that mean?

- Here it is very random, says Johan Carlson.

Is it random?
- Yes, I mean a virus that creates clusters ... Random in the wrong sense. On the one hand you have to have a super spreader and on the other it has to happen it in a way that you do not see it.

For context, here are current stats published by Finland's national public broadcasting company. This is a screendump from July 8. The graph shows number of deaths over time. The table headings say "Country, Tests done, Confirmed cases, Deaths"


"It's random!" I can't help thinking it's starting to sound like America's 45... People are even making the same style of memes:

Feb: We have chosen a different strategy and will succeed this best!

March: Our neighboring countries will end up having it as bad as we are!

April: Only in a few years can we know what was best!

May: We really have the same strategy as everyone else!

July: Everything is random!

 

[Wits_End]

Biggest global daily increase in cases:

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coron...data-shows/ar-BB16uI90?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=ASUDHP

 

[Sean]

The large corona spread in Sweden was due to a "coincidence",

Funny way to spell 'incompetence'.

 

[Jonathan Edwards]

I had previously predicted that the UK would probably get its act together around July after various other countries had made mistakes and shown how important adequate restriction and test and trace was. I think I may have been a couple of weeks ahead of reality. It looks from the news today as if the mistakes are just starting to snowball- Eastern Europe, Australia, even New Zealand... And the curves in the major western European countries are stubbornly failing to go to zero, presumably because of relaxations.

 

[Wits_End]

WHO: Indoor airborne spread of coronavirus possible

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/worl...-coronavirus-possible/ar-BB16xTd3?ocid=ientp2

The World Health Organization is acknowledging the possibility that COVID-19 might be spread in the air under certain conditions — after more than 200 scientists urged the agency to do so.

In an open letter published this week in a journal, two scientists from Australia and the U.S. wrote that studies have shown “beyond any reasonable doubt that viruses are released during exhalation, talking and coughing in microdroplets small enough to remain aloft in the air.”

 

[mango]

The Swedish Intensive Care Registry (SIR) has published incorrect mortality statistics due to a bug in their system:

The Swedish Intensive Care Registry, SIR, has the task of registering all corona cases at the intensive care units. Now they have discovered a bug in the system - which has affected the mortality statistics.

- We can only regret, it is incredibly unfortunate, says the intensive care physician Johnny Hillgren, who is chairman of the intensive care register.

On Thursday, SVT Nyheter published a news item that mortality within 30 days for covid patients at IVA has decreased - from 34 percent in March to four percent in May.

After the publication, the Swedish Intensive Care Register, where the statistics were taken from, discovered a bug in the system which meant that the mortality statistics were incorrect, especially for May. Instead of four percent, mortality was 19 percent within 30 days of enrollment.

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/bugg-i-systemet-har-gett-felaktig-coronastatistik

https://www.icuregswe.org/om-sir/nyheter/fel-i-mortalitetsrapport/

 

[Keela Too]

Fascinating graphic here on various global causes of death for 2020. Shows the rise of COVID, but the order of other causes (esp suicide & Parkinson’s) wasn’t what I expected.

https://public.flourish.studio/visu...IOheZDtEE8WvKHATiEfBQ6Dg7aajqBvAD-mEvx5S8nlng

 

[Jonathan Edwards]

Fascinating graphic here on various global causes of death for 2020. Shows the rise of COVID, but the order of other causes (esp suicide & Parkinson’s) wasn’t what I expected.

https://public.flourish.studio/visu...IOheZDtEE8WvKHATiEfBQ6Dg7aajqBvAD-mEvx5S8nlng

What seems a bit confusing about that graph is that it only includes some rather uncommon causes of death. Stroke and pneumonia would be way off the scale. The total number of deaths in the world since January must be something like 50 million.

 

[Keela Too]

What seems a bit confusing about that graph is that it only includes some rather uncommon causes of death. Stroke and pneumonia would be way off the scale. The total number of deaths in the world since January must be something like 50 million.

Yes. A friend on FB posted this. We both wondered at that too. She says she will ask about choice of comparators. Cancer and heart deaths also missing.

 

[Arnie Pye]

Shows the rise of COVID, but the order of other causes (esp suicide & Parkinson’s) wasn’t what I expected.

What seems a bit confusing about that graph is that it only includes some rather uncommon causes of death.

I would guess that the creators of the graphic chose to display causes of death that would ensure Covid-19 ended up at the top.

 

[Arnie Pye]

Very good (long) article on Britain's response to Covid-19 and how it ended up being so bad :

Title : Into the fog: How Britain lost track of the coronavirus

Subtitle : To tackle the invisible virus, doctors and health specialists first needed to find it. But with few tests, little contact tracing and a government culture of secrecy, they lost sight of the enemy.

Authors : STEPHEN GREY, ANDREW MACASKILL, RYAN MCNEILL, STEVE STECKLOW and TOMMY WILKES

Link : https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/health-coronavirus-britain-tracing/

On Friday, Feb. 21, Duncan Selbie, chief executive of Public Health England, was in a cheerful mood. It was near the end of the school half-term holiday.

He wrote on an official blog that there had been no new positive cases of the new coronavirus that week in the United Kingdom. It was a “testament,” he said, “to the robust infection control measures” and the “diagnostic and testing work” at laboratories nationwide.

Selbie, who joked when he took his then £185,000-a-year job in 2013 that his public health credentials could be fitted “on a postage stamp,” headed a government agency with a mission to prepare for and respond to public health emergencies. He was now facing an epochal one.

...

There is a further short article on the same link at the end of the above report about contact-tracing apps in the UK.

Title : The game changer that wasn’t

Link : Near bottom of page - https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/health-coronavirus-britain-tracing/

Author : STEVE STECKLOW

As Britain’s COVID-19 infections soared in the spring, the government reached for what it hoped could be a game changer – a smartphone app that could automate some of the work of human contact tracers.

...

 

[Wonko]

Virtually anyone who's ever used google maps GPS on a smartphone should have been able to tell them that the app idea was 'silly'.

The reason that some countries got it to work was simple, a much more connected infrastructure, with virtually everyone, and every home, having built in internet with bluetooth/wifi. Many, many, many more known and fixed references to map the moving phones to, means much more accurate resolution.

the UK simply doesn't have this, few countries, or even cities do.

 

[Arnie Pye]

Title : Death at Justice: the story of Emanuel Gomes

Author : Jack Shenker

Link : https://members.tortoisemedia.com/2020/07/06/the-reckoning-death-at-the-ministry/content.html

Why this story?

This is a story about the frightening early days of the coronavirus lockdown. And it is a story about what the pandemic has revealed to us about how we live, who we value, and how we are governed.

At the start, there was some talk about Covid-19 as a great leveller – the virus was indifferent to wealth and status –it could even come for the Prime Minister in 10 Downing Street.

But as the cases rose and the deaths mounted, we learned that this health emergency was not a leveller at all. In fact, it was going to exaggerate inequalities in Britain and other countries.

Wealthier, more educated white collar workers stayed at home; blue collar and essential workers kept on going in.

We know deaths have been higher amongst black, Asian and minority ethnic populations – and that if you live in poor housing, in deprived urban areas, with existing health issues and the kind of job that puts you in contact with the public, in shops, on buses, on security, you were at greater risk.

We wanted to tell the story of Emanuel because it illuminates all of these issues and more.

As Britain begins to reopen, there is a need for a reckoning: what has happened during this pandemic; how have decisions been taken; and what must be done differently? Government by three-word slogans is not going to be enough to deliver a fairer future. David Taylor, editor

 

[spinoza577]

https://www.svd.se/carlson-coronadrabbat-sverige-var-en-slump

It was random, it got this bad by chance?!

As of today Ireland has 353 covid19 deaths per M, and Sweden has 545 ones.

Sweden has made soft measures, and Ireland has made profound measures. According to wikipedia they have been on alert before the first case was reported. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_Republic_of_Ireland

Germany has made some measures, probably not as strong as Ireland, I guess, and has 109 covid-19 deaths.

Excess death rate for some countries:
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

Interesting may be to compare France (with high covid-10 death rate)
with the two German states participating here, which can be glanced at at one time:
Excess mortality in France is negative by now, in Germany no impact at all is visible.

I meanwhile doubt that by end of the year much difference will show up (maybe in England).
(Real) Covid-19 accidents are of course nevertheless tragic, and could have been hindered, I guess.
However, I do not see where the huge, completely unusual threat is.
Probably even in the next European corona season only little impact will be seen.


EDIT: In the video linked in my previous post at 8:11 Sweden can be seen with very low excess mortalitiy for quite some time before covid. On EUROMOMO you can compare it to the not as low excess mortality in the other Nordic countries.

 

[Ravn]

It looks from the news today as if the mistakes are just starting to snowball- Eastern Europe, Australia, even New Zealand...

Yes, and it would be farcical if it wasn't so serious. No community transmission (that we know of) but we've had 4 escapees from isolation/quarantine centers now, all caught again within a couple of hours but still.

Clearly some people are unable to cope with confinement, despite mental health support being available. They climbed over high fences, cut fences, and smashed windows to get out. What can you do about people like that? Putting all arrivals into high security prison would be a bit tough on the many thousands who're all doing the right thing.