Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

Florida's definition of positivity of those tested doesn't impress me, and I've said so several times. Here's a Florida newspaper account I'm hoping others can access. To me it looks like state authorities have shopped around for a measure that will allow them to say they are following CDC guidelines for reopening, when in fact the numbers are two or three times higher.

 

https://twitter.com/user/status/1316520279884075009

 

Florida has moved back to daily reports above 3,000 cases per day: 3,356 new cases and 141 resident deaths today. Here's another report.

We are testing less than half as many people as we did in July, so that is not the cause of this increase. The virus is spreading faster since most restrictions were lifted.

 

Good report on the folly of "herd immunity". Long Covid gets a quick mention as one of the consequences.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0MamflGLlM

 

The foreshadow of a second wave:
An analysis of current COVID-19 fatalities in Germany

"A second wave of SARS-CoV-2 is unfolding in dozens of countries. However, this second wave manifests itself strongly in new reported cases, but less in death counts compared to the first wave. Over the past three months in Germany, the reported cases increased by a factor five or more, whereas the death counts hardly grew.

This discrepancy fueled speculations that the rise of reported cases would not reflect a second wave but only wider testing. We find that this apparent discrepancy can be explained to a large extent by the age structure of the infected, and predict a pronounced increase of death counts in the near future, as the spread once again expands into older age groups.

To re-establish control, and to avoid the tipping point when TTI capacity is exceeded, case numbers have to be lowered. Otherwise the control of the spread and the protection of vulnerable people will require more restrictive measures latest when the hospital capacity is reached."

 

Florida has had a second day with over 3,000 new cases: 3,499 cases and 98 deaths. As said above, this is not the result of increased testing. It appears to be the consequence of lifting all or most restrictions this month. I had expected a delay of weeks. Rt-live puts the case reproduction number at 1.05. I suspect this is an underestimate, otherwise it would not have appeared so quickly. A positivity rate I believe is running 18% of new persons tested, while the state is still claiming 5%.

Compared to Germany, mentioned above, I'd say our capacity to test, trace and isolate has already been exceeded. Many people in contact with a person testing positive never get a telephone call.

This has the potential to become a disaster, assuming we are not already in the middle of one.

 

RSM COVID-19 Series | Episode 46: Sweden and the second wave: how do we live with COVID?

Code:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-yfUsjjj-IA&list=PL1yY3WBVbNWAUNRjD5SUeC9R-G9vT8Gvq&index=1

 

(I haven't watched the episode linked above.)

Meanwhile in Sweden: news articles about the fact that the numbers of covid-19 hospitalisations are increasing as are intensive care cases, the number of infected people in care homes has doubled over a very short period of time, there are outbreaks in hospitals, gymnasiums (upper secondary school?), schools and the military; nightclubs are crowded despite the growing numbers, etc. It's not just among younger people that the infection is currently increasing, but especially among home care staff and hospital staff.

Tegnell said in recent interviews that he is surprised by the increased spread in Stockholm (compared to some other regions), and that he doesn't understand why it is happening.

A few days ago Folkhälsomyndigheten (FHM) decided to start allowing additional temporary regional and local restrictions, in an attempt to control the spread:

From 1 October on, care homes are allowing visitors again, despite the growing number of infections.

On 1 October FHM updated the guidelines to say that "people living with someone who has been found to be infected with covid-19 should be considered as possible cases of illness". This means that adults in the household might be asked to stay home and not go to work, but there are exception for people with so called important jobs such as in healthcare, social services etc.

I have not yet seen any comment by Tegnell or FHM on Ghebreyesus/WHO's statement about herd immunity being unethical.

Still no recommendation to use face masks either.

 

After lockdown for weeks due to an outbreak from a quarantine bungle (still under investigation I think) our state of Victoria, Australia, only recorded one new case yesterday. Lockdown and contact tracing work.

https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-update-victoria-17-october-2020

 

Florida continues to set new records. Today the state reported 4,044 new cases and 88 deaths. What the state has done in the last few weeks has simply been wrong.

The real problem is how long it takes leaders to understand this.

Added: the positivity rate I have been using, the percent positive of those never tested before, is now 21.417%. This probably reflects people who have sought testing because they know they have been exposed. If so, this could be higher than the percentage in a random sample of the population. Still, above 20% could be typical of an epidemic spreading rapidly. This is not reassuring.

 

Title : Police raid homes of French officials in coronavirus probe

Link : https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-h...icials-raided-in-covid-19-probe-idUKKBN2701DL

 

@mango

Although I think that the situation is still not understood, I am somehow surprised when I look at the numbers of Sweden, specifically.

There is no correlation between new case and fatality - so far.

Covid-19 deaths peaked early (begin of April, to be exact) and went steadily down until end of July

while cases peaked end of June, and have risen again not so less since begin of September.


Measures might have done anything here, but the curve of covid-19 deaths looks merely self-determinated.

 

The situation is still not understood, I completely agree with you about that.

Have you at all looked into the matter of why so many elderly people have been left to die without any medical care at all, especially in the earlier stages of the pandemic? I suspect at least a small part of the answer might perhaps be found there.

There's a widely read and discussed paywalled article in DN (I don't have access, sorry):
https://www.dn.se/kultur/varfor-fick-de-aldre-do-utan-lakarvard/

There are several other recent news articles and opinion pieces on the same topic, for example in Expressen, Aftonbladet, SvD and DN. Unfortunately most of them are paywalled.

 

@mango, I don´t say that Sweden has done everything right, especially not this point.

But the overall numbers indicate that the virus is not the killer virus it had been thought. After all, the higher mortality in April in Sweden compared to other Nordic countries may be, partly, due to the low mortality in the two years or so before, in Sweden.

So far there are now in Stockholm six patients with covid-19 at intensive care, as one of your links told. If you look at eg Austria (now 1500 new cases) or Spain there is, by now, in these countries more correlation between new cases and covid-19 deaths, so far, though how much this says is still unclear. I would not be surprised if it turned out that Sweden had done right (though the increase since Fr may not confirm this).

 

I very highly doubt that. Do you have evidence to back that up?

 

@mango I got it from a vid linked to here, I think they still used euromomo data

About the Nordic countries at about 9:00, may be best to start at about 8:30

 

As we can see in the chart available here, that argument makes no sense. https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

As well, Sweden are 12th on the chart of Total Excess Deaths per million people and 10th on Total Excess Deaths relative to historical average for same dates, so seems killer enough to me to take far more seriously than the Swedes seem to be doing at the moment.

 

And from that same link is this graphic, where we see that 5,918 have died from coronavirus in Sweden, compared to 278 in Norway, 351 in Finland, and 679 in Denmark. Now my assumption is that we are seeing a difference there in how seriously coronavirus was taken.

Doesn't look that way to me.

 

No, I really do not feel we could ever say that Sweden "did the right thing".

Just one example: how could anyone ever justify the massive number of elderly people who suffered and died locked up in care homes, without medical care, without any care at all (not even allowed to go to the toilet for a week or more?). No. Just... no.

The whole strategy was based on the idea of protecting the vulnerable while letting the virus spread in a controlled manner among healthy/"low-risk" people. They failed. The virus got to the vulnerable.

The more freedom you give healthy people, the more restricted and unsafe life becomes for people in the risk groups.

Healthy people are allowed to freely hang out in crowded nightclubs and shopping centers for fun, while people in risk groups are being denied basic medical care like dentist appointments and regular checkups for chronic illnesses, denied help with grocery shopping etc. That will never ever be "the right thing" to me.