Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

No one doubts the peaks in march/april.

But what does it mean in context.

So euromomo countries had 2018 very high excess mortality from flue 140.000 over, say, 3-4 months

now with corona in 6 weeks or so 190.000.



Where now is the killer virus, yes , its not that it is no problem, but then? Is it justified to risk normal live?

Probably it was only because the virus is new, and some countries including UK had LOW mortality quite long time before.

 

And while I'm posting don't forget all the additional post-infectious disease, like ME, that Sweden (and all other countries that haven't been serious in controlling it) will be seeing due to more of their population being infected - I don't understand ME patients who don't have an appreciation of how serious that will be, coronavirus doesn't need to kill people to ruin lives, as we well know.

 

The UK is clearly the best country in Europe, at dying.

Despite having the a world beating track and trace system combined with a health service envied by everyone.

I guess, as we're 'winning', our figures do compare favourably with other comparable countries.

 

It´s covid-19 positive deaths, I guess. So it tells not much, and for sure not already the truth. See excess deaths on a wider range.

How relevant at the epidemiological level is it then, do we have data?

 

Yes, because, you know, lives matter more than "normal life". And countries that have taken it more seriously are the ones doing better economically and are more quickly getting back to normal life.

Probably??

And using that "low mortality" rate argument, if coronavirus isn't, as you suggest, as lethal as is claimed, why has the mortality rate gone up?

 

I've highlighted how badly Sweden is doing on excess deaths already to you already. And, for sure, it's accurate enough.

Very relevant.

 

The UK on the other hand has the 5th highest number of deaths from covid-19 in the world, along with having the sixth highest death rate, per million of, current, population.

The world includes other countries which, currently, have much higher populations, than the UK currently has.

India, which has a population 20 times the size of the UK's, has an eighth of the death rate per million, despite a much weaker health infrastructure.

The same world also has many countries with health systems with vastly less resources than the UK's NHS.

In fact the only country higher than us, with an equivalently resourced health care system, is Italy, who didn't really have any warning, so can't IMO be seen as being on a level playing field.

F - Must try harder!!

 

The implication of "normal live" is of course harm as well. After the Lehman crash, in the following years, diseases went up. There are more implication, of course.

I think the mortality rate is now also by the WHO estimated to be in the range of 0.23, compared to 0,1 for flu.

This is not answering the question for data.

Again, this doesn´t say anything in itself. If you screen for deaths with candida albicans you might come to similar conclusions. As by now, there is no catastrophe in excess deaths on a wider ranger. In the past two years or so Sweden had much lower mortality as compared to other Nordic countries, I had linked to the graphs in this post:

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Your graphs seem indeed to be from Euromomo (which I refer to, too), but you might want to look at the whole period for coming to an judgement. Your article from the Financial Times doesn´t manage to do so. Also your dots on total deaths doesn´t indicate a problem specific to Sweden.

 

Ft data cam be downloaded
https://github.com/Financial-Times/coronavirus-excess-mortality-data

 

FT customisable comparison tool

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart...ative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=deaths
7 day comparison in screenshot below UK/ Sweden

 

I don't know what exists in rest UK , or further afield but Scottish government have a dashboard linked to testing results which is broken down to neighbourhoods .

I forwarded the link for town specific info for some relatives, to help them make informed decisions , and check other areas which they may travel to .
You can customise dates - a useful tool

https://public.tableau.com/profile/...OVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

 

The pursuit of herd immunity is a folly – so who's funding this bad science?

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...rd-immunity-funding-bad-science-anti-lockdown

 

Masks made Czech Republic the envy of Europe, now they've blown it - CNN, October 19, 2020

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/19/europe/czech-republic-coronavirus-intl/index.html

 

The guardian could do with having a seminar for their science writing staff to refresh them on how to do due diligence when reporting. I know for sure that Sarah Boseley could use this kind of help as she has in the past whenever writing on ME been a big cheerleader for the BPS as they are of course the experts.

A lesson in not accepting authority just because they sound important. Sometimes as in anything mistakes are made. Journalists are supposed to be the gatekeepers of sorts for when that happens.

Edited to add my main point:

A small part of this is on the people at the guardian who didn't do their job. As with so many others when you let politics disguised as science through without challenge or question this is the result.

 

Some people might be particularly interested in this given the authors: Trish Greenhalgh, Martin McKee and Michelle Kelly-Irving

 

It seems that the suspicions discussed on here previously about cold storage have turned out to be true.

"Chinese health authorities investigating a recent Covid-19 outbreak say they have discovered live coronavirus on frozen food packaging, a finding that suggests the virus can survive in cold supply chains."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...virus-found-on-frozen-food-packaging-in-china

 

Just in case nobody else has linked this, I want to include this link to a video in which Dr. W. Ian Lipkin describes the plan to depend on herd immunity alone as obscene. His estimates of mortality are not wildly overblown. We really could lose over a million Americans.

Here in Florida our peak in case numbers took place in July. Over 2,000 people remain hospitalized. We are still averaging close to 100 deaths per day on a weekly basis.

 

Today Florida reported 3,662 new cases and 84 resident deaths. This is unusually high for a Monday report, and may indicate an increasing case rate. Previous 7-day averaged cases run just under 3,000 per day (2,988).

Florida has between 4 million and 5 million people at increased risk. Even if I assume 20% have been infected and are now immune, this leaves a huge vulnerable population.

 

https://twitter.com/user/status/1318526183315808256