Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

Check out the video here* i.e. press conference by WHO - from memory the key message is test and trace (trace contacts). The Chinese, and South Korean, Government's were able to massively increase testing i.e. to reduce the transmission of the virus. I'm not sure what the issues are for the UK Government following the mass testing route - lack of PCR test kits/personnel --- both? Anyone know? Is Porton Down capable of producing testing kits on the scale needed?


*
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/world-health-organization-latest-coronavirus-covid19-news/

 

Oh gosh. I am very, very scared for what’s coming to the UK.

looks like a steeper rise and trajectory than every other country, even Italy.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1239523274285092866


Edit: Grant Schapps MP claiming on TV that the UK is following science while all other countries are being populist.

 

The lesson from Italy is don't overload your health care system and the Government is doing --?

Also, my impression is that the Italian health care system had more capacity (respirators/ICU places) than the UK.

 

Yes - Italy has quite a lot more. In terms of beds and intensive care facilities.
And also the UK is short of 50,000 nurses and 10,000 doctors across the NHS. Which is staggering.

On the BBC news now, my mum says all she sees is doctors and nurses and head teachers and everyone being upset and angry. As the govt is forcing the schools to remain open. They don’t know what they’re doing. One headteacher said when staff go off sick, they have to put two classes together which means kids are all stuffed together in even closer proximity. Parents are taking their kids out of schools and being told it’s unauthorised. And the GPs and doctors are saying they’re not getting tested so no one knows who has it or whether they should stay off work. And if they don’t test in the community they don’t know who is ill.

No lessons have been learned by the UK govt.

 

This really is amazing.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1239496000286257152

 

https://twitter.com/user/status/1239581296940154880

 

Based on the graph posted earlier, it appears the UK and Spain are on a worse trajectory than Italy.

The US is doing better than expected but that could also be an illusion due to low availability of test kits.

 

Yes... I figure the greater the distance between me and the bat the better!

But, in all seriousness, I’m not expecting to be able to avoid contracting Sars-Cov-2 for all that long (even with good infection control practices), as I always seem to get everything going round anyway.

 

I created a twitter account to follow this stuff.
I follow people relevant to the UK though as well as some international.
@BillHanage associate prof Harvard
@EmergMedDr doctor in UK
@ArisKatzourakis Evolution, genomics
@kallikourdis natural sciences immunology Cambridge
@bealelab infection lab Crick

 

@timcolbourn Prof epidemiology UCL
@KatolaZ complex systems
@richardjcoker LSHTM
@devisridhar Chair global health Edinburgh
@globalhlthtwit Anthony Costello Ex WHO, UCL
@NAChristakis Prof natural sciences Yale

 

This may be an unwanted intruding comment but from what I've been reading here about the situation in the UK it seems to me that the fault of this foolish response can be laid at the feet of the BPS cabal.

This is exactly the kind of situation that happens when you build power and influence and call it science when what it really only is is politics where a predetermined position is couched in science language and baldly pretends to be something it isn't.

Science requires more than the simplistic blabberings of this lot of ideologues. And now when it really matters in a larger context it fails utterly.

 

Thanks @lunarainbows !

 

Not living in the UK but from the outside, having followed PACE and through that also some UK politics it seems to be how power structures in the UK work. People are getting into positions of influence despite being seriously incompetent or at best mediocre and are not being questioned because social norms demand not questioning those in positions of power. That also invites irresponsible behaviour by those in power.

 

WHO:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1239587197839380480


It’s as if he is speaking directly to the UK. I don’t think the UK can carry on the same track anymore.

Test every suspected case. Test test test. Trace. Contain. Even mild cases should be looked after so they don’t infect others. Break chain of transmission. Don’t let it affect poorer countries.

 

Well, we had Sir Simon explicitly tweet out that he doesn't have to self-isolate because he doesn't have symptoms after his wife got sick. And somehwere at the beginning of the latestet twiv (#591), unless I completely misunderstood that part, it was stated that we can be pretty sure by now that there are asymptomatic spreaders.

So, there's that.

 

This graph you include shows an average increase of 33% per day for Italy. If this is the general case its close to the worst case scenario I discussed elsewhere. There is a tapering off over time though, wish I knew more what that was about. Is it just isolation and quarantine? If that is the case then in just 30 days, and nothing were done to contain it, one case could lead to 5,194 cases, and in 60 days this would be nearly 27 million .... please don't presume my math is right though, my math reasoning is fubar. In 90 days this would be everyone on the planet many times over. If this is not a case for containment I don't know what is.

 

I would have thought that the tapering over time, is because the social distancing, lockdown measures are working.

 

https://twitter.com/user/status/1239562078324690944


I hope they also recommend stopping training/ and retraining all the CBT therapists under IAPT and putting them to a more constructive use even if it's manning helplines.

 

Contrasting with UK government advice, in the media briefing, Tedros Adhanom also
stated that measures to reduce risk of transmission whilst in isolation due to being infected with coronavirus should be continued for 14 days after symptoms cease.

https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/det...he-media-briefing-on-covid-19---16-march-2020

Edited quote.