Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

[FMMM1]

I'd like to see doctors and nurses demand that our border is closed. Better to do it now and not gingerly do a wait and see how things go situation.

We can't rely on people doing the right thing and isolating after coming into our country.

Check out the video here* i.e. press conference by WHO - from memory the key message is test and trace (trace contacts). The Chinese, and South Korean, Government's were able to massively increase testing i.e. to reduce the transmission of the virus. I'm not sure what the issues are for the UK Government following the mass testing route - lack of PCR test kits/personnel --- both? Anyone know? Is Porton Down capable of producing testing kits on the scale needed?


*
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/world-health-organization-latest-coronavirus-covid19-news/

 

[lunarainbows]

Oh gosh. I am very, very scared for what’s coming to the UK.

looks like a steeper rise and trajectory than every other country, even Italy.



Edit: Grant Schapps MP claiming on TV that the UK is following science while all other countries are being populist.

 

[FMMM1]

Oh gosh. I am very, very scared for what’s coming to the UK.

looks like a steeper rise and trajectory than every other country, even Italy.



Edit: Grant Schapps MP claiming on TV that the UK is following science while all other countries are being populist.

The lesson from Italy is don't overload your health care system and the Government is doing --?

Also, my impression is that the Italian health care system had more capacity (respirators/ICU places) than the UK.

 

[lunarainbows]

The lesson from Italy is don't overload your health care system and the Government is doing --?

Also, my impression is that the Italian health care system had more capacity (respirators/ICU places) than the UK.

Yes - Italy has quite a lot more. In terms of beds and intensive care facilities.
And also the UK is short of 50,000 nurses and 10,000 doctors across the NHS. Which is staggering.

On the BBC news now, my mum says all she sees is doctors and nurses and head teachers and everyone being upset and angry. As the govt is forcing the schools to remain open. They don’t know what they’re doing. One headteacher said when staff go off sick, they have to put two classes together which means kids are all stuffed together in even closer proximity. Parents are taking their kids out of schools and being told it’s unauthorised. And the GPs and doctors are saying they’re not getting tested so no one knows who has it or whether they should stay off work. And if they don’t test in the community they don’t know who is ill.

No lessons have been learned by the UK govt.

 

[Adrian]

Edit: Grant Schapps MP claiming on TV that the UK is following science while all other countries are being populist.

Sometimes I wonder if there is a problem with peoples understanding when they say that they are following 'science'. It suggests that they think science has a single correct answer rather than being a methodology. The problem here is there are a lot of uncertainties. People can build models and try to understand spread patterns but the underlying assumptions will lead to different patterns and different risks. So following she science in this case seems to mean 'we talked to someone who seemed to know what they were talking about and followed that' rather than understanding what is known, where there are uncertain assumptions and how accurate they may be etc.

 

[lunarainbows]

This really is amazing.

 

[ME/CFS Skeptic]

 

[Hoopoe]

Based on the graph posted earlier, it appears the UK and Spain are on a worse trajectory than Italy.

The US is doing better than expected but that could also be an illusion due to low availability of test kits.

 

[hinterland]

The common cold is ancient, and well adapted to humans. Its not very virulent. In time this might be the future of any Corona virus. Its the early phases, with a new virus, that are the most dangerous.

Yes... I figure the greater the distance between me and the bat the better!

But, in all seriousness, I’m not expecting to be able to avoid contracting Sars-Cov-2 for all that long (even with good infection control practices), as I always seem to get everything going round anyway.

 

[lunarainbows]

I created a twitter account to follow this stuff.
I follow people relevant to the UK though as well as some international.
@BillHanage associate prof Harvard
@EmergMedDr doctor in UK
@ArisKatzourakis Evolution, genomics
@kallikourdis natural sciences immunology Cambridge
@bealelab infection lab Crick

 

[lunarainbows]

@timcolbourn Prof epidemiology UCL
@KatolaZ complex systems
@richardjcoker LSHTM
@devisridhar Chair global health Edinburgh
@globalhlthtwit Anthony Costello Ex WHO, UCL
@NAChristakis Prof natural sciences Yale

 

[Snowdrop]

This may be an unwanted intruding comment but from what I've been reading here about the situation in the UK it seems to me that the fault of this foolish response can be laid at the feet of the BPS cabal.

This is exactly the kind of situation that happens when you build power and influence and call it science when what it really only is is politics where a predetermined position is couched in science language and baldly pretends to be something it isn't.

Science requires more than the simplistic blabberings of this lot of ideologues. And now when it really matters in a larger context it fails utterly.

 

[ME/CFS Skeptic]

Thanks @lunarainbows !

 

[Hoopoe]

This may be an unwanted intruding comment but from what I've been reading here about the situation in the UK it seems to me that the fault of this foolish response can be laid at the feet of the BPS cabal.

This is exactly the kind of situation that happens when you build power and influence and call it science when what it really only is is politics where a predetermined position is couched in science language and baldly pretends to be something it isn't.

Science requires more than the simplistic blabberings of this lot of ideologues. And now when it really matters in a larger context it fails utterly.

Not living in the UK but from the outside, having followed PACE and through that also some UK politics it seems to be how power structures in the UK work. People are getting into positions of influence despite being seriously incompetent or at best mediocre and are not being questioned because social norms demand not questioning those in positions of power. That also invites irresponsible behaviour by those in power.

 

[lunarainbows]

WHO:



It’s as if he is speaking directly to the UK. I don’t think the UK can carry on the same track anymore.

Test every suspected case. Test test test. Trace. Contain. Even mild cases should be looked after so they don’t infect others. Break chain of transmission. Don’t let it affect poorer countries.

 

[Philipp]

This may be an unwanted intruding comment but from what I've been reading here about the situation in the UK it seems to me that the fault of this foolish response can be laid at the feet of the BPS cabal.

Well, we had Sir Simon explicitly tweet out that he doesn't have to self-isolate because he doesn't have symptoms after his wife got sick. And somehwere at the beginning of the latestet twiv (#591), unless I completely misunderstood that part, it was stated that we can be pretty sure by now that there are asymptomatic spreaders.

So, there's that.

 

[alex3619]

looks like a steeper rise and trajectory than every other country, even Italy.

This graph you include shows an average increase of 33% per day for Italy. If this is the general case its close to the worst case scenario I discussed elsewhere. There is a tapering off over time though, wish I knew more what that was about. Is it just isolation and quarantine? If that is the case then in just 30 days, and nothing were done to contain it, one case could lead to 5,194 cases, and in 60 days this would be nearly 27 million .... please don't presume my math is right though, my math reasoning is fubar. In 90 days this would be everyone on the planet many times over. If this is not a case for containment I don't know what is.

 

[lunarainbows]

This graph you include shows an average increase of 33% per day for Italy. If this is the general case its close to the worst case scenario I discussed elsewhere. There is a tapering off over time though, wish I knew more what that was about. Is it just isolation and quarantine? If that is the case then in just 30 days, and nothing were done to contain it, one case could lead to 5,194 cases, and in 60 days this would be nearly 27 million .... please don't presume my math is right though, my math reasoning is fubar. In 90 days this would be everyone on the planet many times over. If this is not a case for containment I don't know what is.

I would have thought that the tapering over time, is because the social distancing, lockdown measures are working.

 

[Sly Saint]

I hope they also recommend stopping training/ and retraining all the CBT therapists under IAPT and putting them to a more constructive use even if it's manning helplines.

 

[Sarah]

Contrasting with UK government advice, in the media briefing, Tedros Adhanom also
stated that measures to reduce risk of transmission whilst in isolation due to being infected with coronavirus should be continued for 14 days after symptoms cease.

https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/det...he-media-briefing-on-covid-19---16-march-2020

WHO advises that all confirmed cases, even mild cases, should be isolated in health facilities, to prevent transmission and provide adequate care.

But we recognize that many countries have already exceeded their capacity to care for mild cases in dedicated health facilities.

In that situation, countries should prioritize older patients and those with underlying conditions.

Some countries have expanded their capacity by using stadiums and gyms to care for mild cases, with severe and critical cases cared for in hospitals.

Another option is for patients with mild disease to be isolated and cared for at home.

Caring for infected people at home may put others in the same household at risk, so it’s critical that care-givers follow WHO’s guidance on how to provide care as safely as possible.

For example, both the patient and their care-giver should wear a medical mask when they are together in the same room.

The patient should sleep in a separate bedroom to others and use a different bathroom.

Assign one person to care for the patient, ideally someone who is in good health and has no underlying conditions.

The care-giver should wash their hands after any contact with the patient or their immediate environment.

People infected with COVID-19 can still infect others after they stop feeling sick, so these measures should continue for at least two weeks after symptoms disappear.

Visitors should not be allowed until the end of this period.

There are more details in WHO’s guidance.

Edited quote.