Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

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SallyC said:
Saw this posted as a response to the Imperial report. Sorry it's just a screenshot but the title should be searchable.

In fact I found it to make it easier

https://necsi.edu/review-of-ferguson-et-al-impact-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions
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I’m finding it difficult to contain my anger. Thank you, a very very helpful report and easy to understand.

The failings are on a level of other horrific decisions and failings, enough to warrant a public enquiry. This needs to be known.

They do not model and so ignore standard contact tracing. They do not model and so ignore standard contact tracing. They ignore superspreaders at big events.

I have just sent off an email to Jeremy Hunt with the link. Please let me know if any other MPs. I don’t know who else sits on the committee that was interrogating Vallance. But know Jeremy Hunt has been at the forefront of this.

I also tweeted Anthony Costello, Jonathon Ashton and Devi Sridhar. Most or all of them may be aware but if they are not I didn’t want to leave it to chance.

Edit: also tweeted to bring their attention to it, to Adam Boulton Sky News, Faisal Islam and Cathy Newman at Channel 4 news and Rory Stewart. As I’m not sure exactly how tweeting works still. If I put @adamboultonSKY before my message, do they still see it?? Or at the end? I hope so as I put it at the end.

Is this why our doctors and nurses are infected and sick and passing it onto others in hospital? I’m furious.
 
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More confirmation that social distancing will be insufficient. In a town in Italy, they managed to contain the virus by testing asymptomatic people that had contact with symptomatic ones.

Click on the tweet to read the entire thread.



Without a positive test, people will also not adhere to social distancing and/or isolation as well they would otherwise (edited).

Translation of a part of the original article here, titled ("we need to change course and test asymptomatic people") https://corrierefiorentino.corriere...ta-ef23a500-669a-11ea-a40a-86d505f82a96.shtml

In questo studio è stato eseguito il tampone per la ricerca del Covid-19 a tutti gli abitanti del paese di Vò ed è stato dimostrato che la grande maggioranza delle persone che si infetta, tra il 50 e il 75%, è completamente asintomatica, ma rappresenta comunque una formidabile fonte di contagio. A Vò infatti con l’isolamento dei soggetti infettati il numero totale dei malati è sceso da 88 a 7 (cioè di circa 10 volte) nel giro di 7-10 giorni. Quello che è anche più interessante e in parte sorprendente, è stata anche la dimostrazione che l’isolamento dei contagiati (sintomatici o non sintomatici) non solo risultava capace di proteggere dal contagio altre persone, ma appariva in grado di proteggere anche dalla evoluzione grave della malattia nei soggetti contagiati perché il tasso di guarigione nei pazienti infettati, se isolati, era nel 60% dei casi pari a soli 8 giorni .
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It says that every inhabitant of Vo' was tested and that 50 to 75% of the infected are completely asymptomatic but highly contagious. With isolation of the infected in Vo' the total number of sick declined from 88 to 7 in 7-10 days. Isolation also appeared to protect against bad outcomes in the infected, as the recovery rate in the infected was 60% in just 8 days.

There's also an article in English:

The first testing round, carried out on the town’s entire population in late February, found 3 per cent of the population infected, though half of the carriers had no symptoms. After isolating all those infected, the second testing round about 10 days later showed the infection rate had dropped to 0.3 per cent.

Importantly, however, this second round identified at least six individuals who had the virus but no symptoms, meaning they could be quarantined. “If they hadn’t been identified, the infection would have resumed,” explained Prof Crisanti.
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In Veneto, the authorities plan to expand the aggressive testing regime in the whole region and are seeking to take at least 11,000 swabs a day. “If someone calls the [virus] hotline and says they are sick, then everyone in the family, all their friends and the whole building get tested,” said Prof Crisanti.
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https://www.irishtimes.com/news/wor...-cases-to-zero-1.4205354#.XnGea-EzhVw.twitter
 
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Simbindi said:
I appreciate that. My youngest boarded for a while (the boarding didn't really work out so she became a day pupil to keep her scholarship) at an independent school with an international school attached. There were (still are) a lot of Chinese students. When their English is good enough they transfer to the main school. Her boarding master told me she liked to sit at breakfast with the male Chinese students. When I asked her why, her reply was, 'They don't speak English'!

She would have met the criteria for autism as a child, but she did so well that I never got her assessed (she would be offended if I were to say she actually is autistic, but her way of thinking is just like mine).
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Great that she is doing well at school.

The aim of my post was to highlight that the Republic of Ireland has introduced (coronavirus) testing for the public i.e. the advice is to stay at home and phone --- and they will arrange to have you tested. They then try to trace contacts.

The attempt at humour was to reflect on @Jonathan Edwards comment that the UK Government should look at how other countries have responded i.e. test and trace contacts - Jonathan referred to "people who don't speak English at breakfast". The Republic of Ireland has a minority language (Irish) while the primary language is English. So my poor attempt at humour was to look at how another country has responded (Republic of Ireland) and to "joke" that they mostly speak English.

In trouble --- late leaving for work--
 
BurnA said:
With a positive test people should be in quarantine / isolation, social distancing is what everyone should be doing.
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I guess that without testing symptomatic people or contacts, many will underestimate how many infected people there are in the community and how high the risks of transmission is. Additionally, many people won't know if they have had coronavirus or just a bad cold or regular flu. So if they repeatedly get the symptoms of a fever and/or a dry cough, they may stop self-isolating even when affected, and also stop practising social distancing.
 
Sasha said:
This situation is horrific, both for the public and for the NHS staff.

Does anyone know of any campaign to get this changed? It's sheer madness.
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I think this is at the forefront of everyone’s minds now. It is horrific on a scale I never imagined would happen. I see Richard Horton is talking about it and is in contact with NHS staff. I see other prominent people and scientists/doctors talking about it. I don’t know how or what they’re doing though.

Jeremy Hunt brought it up to Vallance yesterday and as usual Vallance had a non-answer and was very good at deflecting any questions.

 
lunarainbows said:
As I’m not sure exactly how tweeting works still. If I put @adamboultonSKY before my message, do they still see it?? Or at the end? I hope so as I put it at the end.
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If you put the @ at the very beginning of the message then it will only be seen by that recipient. If you put it in the body of the message (a fullstop before the @ serves this purpose in the simplest way) then it is viewable to all. (I think!) Putting it at the end makes it viewable to all too.
 
Sasha said:
Does anyone know of any campaign to get this changed? It's sheer madness.
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Additional for routine testing of NHS frontline staff:

https://www.change.org/p/test-front...ed_by_id=93baa130-5010-11e7-b17d-ffbf4fd8fa55

Getting towards 1 million signatories. Nursing Times article mentioning this, from Tuesday
https://www.nursingtimes.net/news/c...ioritised-for-coronavirus-testing-17-03-2020/

They do quite aggressively for cash afterwards, to pay for promotion of the petition, but you don’t have to give.
 
Simon M said:
Additional for routine testing of NHS frontline staff:

https://www.change.org/p/test-front...ed_by_id=93baa130-5010-11e7-b17d-ffbf4fd8fa55

Getting towards 1 million signatories. Nursing Times article mentioning this, from Tuesday
https://www.nursingtimes.net/news/c...ioritised-for-coronavirus-testing-17-03-2020/

They do quite aggressively for cash afterwards, to pay for promotion of the petition, but you don’t have to give.
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Just heard the issue raised on the BBC news (can't remember which channel or whether it was TV or radio).
 
They were interviewing a man (mid 60's) who took a trip to Japan with his wife and contracted the virus. He came back to Colorado and was put into quarantine, he volunteered to give samples for study. He is STILL testing positive for the virus after ONE month and says 2 weeks isn't long enough to self isolate.
 
Amw66 said:
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Unfortunately, Australia also has a 'nudge unit' although they thankfully don't seem to have as much power as the UK version.

Much of the rationale behind it is based on behavioural economics. Within the more sensible parts of the economics profession, behavioural economics is considered to be nonsense. It combines the worst of economics with helpings of pseudoscience from psychology.

However very few of my ex-colleagues are keen to speak out about it (indeed it very much mirrors the current situation with BPS within medicine).
 
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Dr. Ian Lipkin, director of the Center for Infection and Immunity at Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health, talks with Rachel Maddow about the effectiveness of social distancing, shelter-in-place, and other policies to control the spread of the novel coronavirus. Aired on 03/16/2020.
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Code: 
https://youtu.be/ORk0I2o0WPU
 
Sasha said:
On the TV news, I keep seeing people in protective gear spraying pavements in some countries with what is presumably disinfectant. I'm wondering why? I can understand cleaning things that people might touch, but why the ground?
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Precautionary? If infected delivers etc are placed or dropped on the ground then that could transmit to other surfaces? It can persist up to 9 days on nonporous surfaces.
 
might I suggest that in the UK and maybe elsewhere that high profile people who have managed to infect themselves by handshaking and hugging other high profile people, whether actors, racing drivers, politicians or ex-presidents of Royal Colleges would be well placed to roll up their sleeves and volunteer as front line healthcare workers dealing with infected cases. Since they are immune they have a duty to spare medical workers who are not.
 
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