Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

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lunarainbows said:
Well

https://www.theguardian.com/society...e-operating-fully-until-september-coronavirus

NHS test-and-trace app ‘not fully operational until September’
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This subcontracted system bears no relation to effective public health practice anyway. I am sticking to my prediction that something realistic will be in place in the UK by July (or nearly!). Maybe people within local government and health trusts will realise that they have to set things up themselves,like they have already done in Sheffield.
 
Jonathan Edwards said:
This subcontracted system bears no relation to effective public health practice anyway. I am sticking to my prediction that something realistic will be in place in the UK by July (or nearly!). Maybe people within local government and health trusts will realise that they have to set things up themselves,like they have already done in Sheffield.
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I really hope you’re right. It’s scary that they’ve opened up the lockdown without even having a fully functioning tracing system in place.
 
Sly Saint said:
he has tested negative; but given that 29% of tests are producing false negatives.........
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Yeah the fact our tests have a significant false negative rate are widely known. Why was one test enough? I heard stories in other countries eg China of people being tested many times, if they came out negative but there was a suspicion they had coronavirus.

Or at the very least given that coronavirus is circulating, treat him as COVID positive & trace everyone he’s been in contact with. If he was positive & they’re not isolating & tracing all the people around him, this could start a chain of transmission in parliament. And similar could happen more in the wider community.

So if they do nothing, the worst that can happen is pretty bad. But if they treat him as positive the worst that can happen is that his contacts will have to isolate for a couple of weeks. Im worried about this system of depending on tests completely even though they know there’s a high false negative rate and I don’t understand it.
 
COVID-19: nowcast and forecast
Paul Birrell, Joshua Blake, Edwin van Leeuwen, Daniela De Angelis, Joint PHE Modelling Cell, and MRC Biostatistics Unit COVID-19 Working Group.
Findings
  1. We estimate that across England there are 17,000 (11,000–25,000, 95% credible interval) new infections arising each day
  2. We estimate that the number of deaths each day is likely to fall to between 100–250 by mid-June
  3. We believe it is probable that Rt is below 1 in all regions of England with the exception of the North West and the South West
  4. In the South West, although Rt is around 1, the numbers of new infections occurring in the region on a daily basis is relatively low
  5. There is some evidence that Rt has risen in all regions and we believe that this is probably due to increasing mobility and mixing between households and in public and workplace settings
  6. An increase in Rt will lead to a slowdown in the decrease in new infections and deaths
  7. There is evidence, from the forecast of deaths for the whole of England, that the increases in the regional reproductive numbers may result in the decline in the national death rate being arrested by mid-June
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https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/
 
Andy said:
COVID-19: nowcast and forecast
Paul Birrell, Joshua Blake, Edwin van Leeuwen, Daniela De Angelis, Joint PHE Modelling Cell, and MRC Biostatistics Unit COVID-19 Working Group.

https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/
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Why is there such a discrepancy between this and what the ONS say (over 5000 new cases a day - 39,000 a week)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/5june2020?
 
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lunarainbows said:
Why is there such a discrepancy between this and what the ONS say
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One reason is that the ONS are excluding cases in the places where a high number of infections are likely to be:
ONS said:
Within this bulletin, we refer to the number of coronavirus (COVID-19) infections within the community population; community in this instance refers to private households, and it excludes those in hospitals, care homes or other institutional settings.
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Another reason is that the ONS number is for a past week, while the mrc-bsu now-casting numbers are for today, and they think reproduction numbers are increasing.
ONS said:
There were an estimated 39,000 new COVID-19 infections per week in England (95% confidence interval: 26,000 to 55,000) between 26 April and 30 May 2020, equating to an incidence rate per week of 0.07 new cases per 100 people.
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And any remaining variation? Both groups are doing quite a lot of guessing?
 
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Hutan said:
One reason is that the ONS are excluding cases in the places where a high number of infections are likely to be:


Another reason is that the ONS number is for a past week, while the mrc-bsu now-casting numbers are for today, and they think reproduction numbers are increasing.


And any remaining variation? Both groups are doing quite a lot of guessing about some assumptions?
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It’s very strange that they’re excluding new infections in hospitals, care homes and institutions. Why do they exclude that when it’s such a significant source of infection? It’s also misleading (not the ONS itself but how it’s reported), because my mum says she’s been watching various news channels today and they reported it as the figures for new cases which most people who don’t look into it properly (including me until now), would assume was total new cases. My mum said they don’t explicitly say that it doesn’t include care homes, hospitals and all institutions, which they should do, each time. I just didn’t even think about it. The ONS figure is the one that is used in the media.

Edit, take for example this article on 28 May:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52837593

About 7% have had coronavirus, says ONS survey

In a few points in the article they mention “households” or “private households” getting swabbed and that cases in the community are not rising. But then they go on to say in its own paragraph: “From the numbers testing positive, the ONS estimates there are 54,000 new coronavirus infections per week in England, or around 8,000 a day.”

Edit: this is also the figure that I have seen scientists for example, Prof Devi Sridhar refer to in her interviews.
 
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The data from the US is very erratic from day to day but it seems like there is an increasing trend of new cases now in key states like Florida and Texas. Arizona was one of the earliest to reduce stay at home measures on 15th May, and already the numbers are rising sharply.

There is only so long that politicians will be able to hide behind the excuse of increased testing, its basically a question of vaccine or bust now for the US.
 
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No discussion of this as yet? - Karl Friston of the independant SAGE group seems to be one of the few with his head screwed on :

"Karl Friston: up to 80% not even susceptible to Covid-19" :

 
Jonathan Edwards said:
Maybe people within local government and health trusts will realise that they have to set things up themselves,like they have already done in Sheffield.
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They've done this in Ceredigion too. (Apologies for all the adverts in the linked article!)

One big difference that sets Ceredigion apart was that even before it had recorded its first case of Covid-19, it had set up a "homemade" in-house test track and trace system.

The man behind it, Barry Rees, the corporate director for Ceredigion Council, is a scientist by training. He believes contact tracing is the only way of "pursuing the disease then rather than following it".
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Some interesting graphs about the surrounding authorities compared to Ceredigion.
 
ladycatlover said:
They've done this in Ceredigion too. (Apologies for all the adverts in the linked article!)

Some interesting graphs about the surrounding authorities compared to Ceredigion.
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Remarkable. It illustrates the fact that contact tracing and isolation is really not that hard. It dawned me this week just how feasible it should be. Woodbridge has a population of 8,000, probably with 5 GPs and another 15 or so routine staff. My estimate is that at peak Woodbridge was having maybe 1-2 new cases a day. Dealing with those in terms of contact tracing should surely not be too hard. If fewer people are going to the health centre, as is likely, then someone out of twenty should have time to sort out a plan for one or two people a day.

And I noted this paragraph from Ceredigion:
"We short circuited that loop and didn't wait for their test results to come back before taking action. We were able to send a note down to our contact tracing team to gather more information. If they're showing symptoms then there's almost the presumption of a positive test and that guides the advice we give to them."

Just as I thought- testing is not needed for contact tracing and isolation to be put in place. It would be good to have but it shouldn't hold up doing the job.

The incompetence of central government is mind-boggling.
I did think of trying to set something up in Woodbridge but since I am close to the self-isolating age anyway and not that good with phones because my hearing aids need servicing I thought maybe not!
 
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Jonathan Edwards said:
I did think of trying to set something up in Woodbridge but since I am close to the self-isolating age anyway and not that good with phones because my hearing aids need servicing I thought maybe not!
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Oh, I "hear" you on that! I never answer my phone anyway as don't want to get scammed. :rolleyes: But something like this could be run via WhatsApp maybe? Can upload photos if needed, and it's basically text based. Not sure how good privacy is if it needs to run in a group. Or how it could be set up for privacy.

There could be hearing people who could deal with telephone calls, but a lot of people use WhatsApp just to keep in touch with their families, so it might be a familiar thing to use. OK, I know it wouldn't work for those folks who don't have a smart phone (and my old smart phone didn't have enough memory to download it) but it might make a start.

I can't help thinking that at this point in time anything that might help in even a small way is better than nothing. Though the privacy thing is going to be a problem. I was just trying to toss out an idea for discussion - I reckon it's going to come down to grass roots groups to try sort things out, but they will need to get the trust of their population.
 
Jonathan Edwards said:
Remarkable. It illustrates the fact that contact tracing and isolation is really not that hard. It dawned me this week just how feasible it should be. Woodbridge has a population of 8,000, probably with 5 GPs and another 15 or so routine staff. My estimate is that at peak Woodbridge was having maybe 1-2 new cases a day. Dealing with those in terms of contact tracing should surely not be too hard. If fewer people are going to the health centre, as is likely, then someone out of twenty should have time to sort out a plan for one or two people a day.

And I noted this paragraph from Ceredigion:
"We short circuited that loop and didn't wait for their test results to come back before taking action. We were able to send a note down to our contact tracing team to gather more information. If they're showing symptoms then there's almost the presumption of a positive test and that guides the advice we give to them."

Just as I thought- testing is not needed for contact tracing and isolation to be put in place. It would begged Mohave but it shouldn't hold up doing the job.

The incompetence of central government is mind-boggling.
I did think of trying to set something up in Woodbridge but since I am close to the self-isolating age anyway and not that good with phones because my hearing aids need servicing I thought maybe not!
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I hope maybe groups like Independent Sage and well known / vocal scientists start talking about this publicly - they could also begin talking with local authorities or public health teams who already know a lot, to help them figure out what’s needed (there’s a few public health experts on independent sage).

If just a few more areas start up contact tracing it could gain traction. But so far the vast majority of areas have been waiting for Central govt to get their act together, but if they don’t do something themselves things are going to snowball - as it doesn’t look like the govt genuinely has a local or effective plan at all, or is even thinking of making one. I think I will contact my local authority to see if they are planning on doing something similar. My town has close to 400,000 people living there - although it is split up into north, central and south.
 
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