Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

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Mij said:
Disease surveillance have satellite images of hospital parking lots skyrocketing in Wuhan hospitals months before the WHO announced the pandemic. They were also filling up the end of 2018-2019, greater than any other time period in previous years.
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Are you referring to that pre-print from Harvard, "Analysis of hospital traffic and search engine data in Wuhan China indicates early disease activity in the Fall of 2019"?

If so, I think there might be some problems with that study.

 
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Mij said:
I was referring to an interview I watched with John Brownstein ID epidemiologist (mentioned in the link you provided).
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Yes, John S. Brownstein is the Harvard Medical professor who led the study I mentioned. If the interview you watched took place sometime in early June, it's likely he was talking about the findings in this study, which was getting a lot of traction in the media around that time.

The more I read, the more I'm realizing this paper is complete garbage. This is the kind of shoddy methodology I expect from BPSers, not an ID epidemiologist who is also Professor of Pediatrics and Biomedical Informatics at Harvard Medical School and Chief Innovation Officer of Boston Children’s Hospital.





Mij said:
He also said that their data indicated that they saw huge increases in ppl searching for GI disease-diarrhea which increased at level that they'd never seen before.
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@lunarainbows

Thanks for posting this. I had stopped reading daily updates because of all the misinformation circulating.

lunarswirls said:
The more I read, the more I'm realizing this paper is complete garbage. This is the kind of shoddy methodology I expect from BPSers, not an ID epidemiologist who is also Professor of Pediatrics and Biomedical Informatics at Harvard Medical School and Chief Innovation Officer of Boston Children’s Hospital.
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Totally agree!
 
Wits_End said:
Let it be recorded that the current number of infections in Dorset is 372. I'm waiting in trepidation to see what happens.
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Number in Dorset is now pushing 600. That's just over a week later.

But that's nothing. I've just looked at the infection maps for the UK, and the changes in recorded infection rates over the past few days from previously stable numbers are quite shocking in a number of places, in particular in the Lancashire/West Yorkshire area, but also in many London boroughs (maybe up by about one quarter?).

What has caused this? Is it a delay in updating data/the map? More testing, so more infections found? Or relaxation/flouting of the lockdown rules? If the latter, how will we know which ones, since so many have been relaxed at more or less the same time? Will we end up having a wholesale reimposition of the lockdown rules because we can't narrow it down enough to find the one(s) responsible? Sure, there have been outbreaks at various factories and so on, but they surely can't be responsible for everything. It's very worrying.

Coronavirus tracked: Where are Covid-19 infection rates spiking in England?

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...es-spiking-in-england/ar-BB16pdND?ocid=ASUDHP

Several areas in England are experiencing a surge in new coronavirus cases, with places in the North West appearing most at risk to a second wave of infections similar to the one seen in Leicester.
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Wits_End said:
What has caused this? Is it a delay in updating data/the map? More testing, so more infections found? Or relaxation/flouting of the lockdown rules? If the latter, how will we know which ones, since so many have been relaxed at more or less the same time? Will we end up having a wholesale reimposition of the lockdown rules because we can't narrow it down enough to find the one(s) responsible? Sure, there have been outbreaks at various factories and so on, but they surely can't be responsible for everything. It's very worrying.

Coronavirus tracked: Where are Covid-19 infection rates spiking in England?

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...es-spiking-in-england/ar-BB16pdND?ocid=ASUDHP
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Reporting of cases has been changed in the last week. I haven’t checked and my memory is hazy, but basically previous public reporting in the U.K. did not include pillar 2 testing from the community, just pillar 1 ie hospitals, care homes etc. This is because pillar 2 tests are carried out by Deloitte?, a private sector contractor, not the NHS. The contract for this testing somehow didn’t allow for that data to be released to anyone except central UK government, who weren’t sharing. This is why the local Public Health officials and the council in Leicester did not know the extent of the rise in cases in Leicester until shortly before they had to lockdown.

The number of positively tested cases in Derbyshire has nearly doubled in a week in Derbyshire too, and it will be largely for that reason. In the previous 4 or 5 weeks the data was showing a slow increase of a handful per hundred thousand a week.
 
Wits_End said:
but also in many London boroughs
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that doesn't surprise me after seeing the C4 news coverage over the weekend of the party like atmosphere in Soho. They should have banned Londoners from all but essential travel out of London a long time ago and should definitely do it now.
You had to laugh when it was broadcast that a senior police spokesperson announced 'Drunk people don't social distance very well'......you don't say.
 
Wits_End said:
Number in Dorset is now pushing 600. That's just over a week later.

But that's nothing. I've just looked at the infection maps for the UK, and the changes in recorded infection rates over the past few days from previously stable numbers are quite shocking in a number of places, in particular in the Lancashire/West Yorkshire area, but also in many London boroughs (maybe up by about one quarter?).

What has caused this? Is it a delay in updating data/the map? More testing, so more infections found? Or relaxation/flouting of the lockdown rules? If the latter, how will we know which ones, since so many have been relaxed at more or less the same time? Will we end up having a wholesale reimposition of the lockdown rules because we can't narrow it down enough to find the one(s) responsible? Sure, there have been outbreaks at various factories and so on, but they surely can't be responsible for everything. It's very worrying.

Coronavirus tracked: Where are Covid-19 infection rates spiking in England?

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...es-spiking-in-england/ar-BB16pdND?ocid=ASUDHP
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Perhaps reflects pillar 2 data now being made available?
 
Further to my previous post about the seeming increase in cases due to change to the inclusion of pillar two testing, from the Gov.uk website here https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/#category=ltlas&map=case

The methodology for reporting positive cases changed on 2 July 2020 to remove duplicates within and across pillars 1 and 2, to ensure that a person who tests positive is only counted once. Due to this change, 30,302 previously reported cases were removed from the UK total.

Numbers of lab-confirmed positive cases throughout this website (national, regional and local authority level) now include those identified by testing in all settings (pillars 1 and 2). Due to this change many cases previously not attributed to any area are now included in area totals. This is not a recent surge in cases – the cases now being reported occurred from April onwards.
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If you click on the LTLA tab on the table further down you can find figures for the lower tier local authorities (eg borough council area), which could be useful to know! (Edit - grammar)
 
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