Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

Status
Not open for further replies.
Jonathan Edwards said:
My guess is that there is a high chance that this new cluster is due to imported goods, maybe stuff bought on the internet.
Click to expand...
Interesting you say that. One of the infected family works at a cold store, perhaps with chilled or frozen imported products, and there was quite a bit of talk about checking the work environment for infection. There has been the suggestion that cold temperatures might keep the virus alive longer. Anyway, hopefully we shall know more in the next few days.
 
Jonathan Edwards said:
My guess is that there is a high chance that this new cluster is due to imported goods, maybe stuff bought on the internet. New Zealand have been very lucky to keep free of community spread and I think it very likely that they will be able to restore the situation of no spread. However, there was always the issue of imported goods nand the risks will have risen as infection rates have risen. I wonder if NZ is importing fresh produce that cannot be grown at home in August.
Click to expand...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...vestigating-freight-source-covid-19-outbreak/
 
An update on the NZ cluster: more cases have been identified, with most related to the cool store facility. The genome of the Covid strain of this cluster does not match the genomes from cases in our border quarantine facilities that have been examined. The swabbing of the surfaces at the cool store is only happening today.

I did hear that the same cool store company's facility in Melbourne has had two cases. So, the possibility of Covid having been transferred on freight hasn't been ruled out but the government is saying that it is unlikely - person to person contact is seen as more likely.
 
Last edited:
Hutan said:
I did hear that the same cool store company's facility in Melbourne has had two cases. So, the possibility of Covid having been transferred on freight hasn't been ruled out but the government is saying that it is unlikely - person to person contact is seen as more likely.
Click to expand...

I don't really follow the logic of that. Sure, person to person contact has occurred in Aukland, certainly outside the cool store and also within the cool store staff. But the virus has to come from somewhere and it seems pretty clear that it has not bee hanging around Aukland for three months or brought in through quarantine.
 
I was surprised at the government people saying that the freight idea is low probability.

That said, it could have come from a quarantine facility. Only some of the samples from quarantine have had the genome described, so there still might be some that match the cool store cluster. And, in the earlier days of the quarantine facilities, there wasn't as much testing of staff. So, I guess it's possible a quarantine staff member had an asymptomatic infection and spread it.
 
I think the odds must be 50:1 on imported goods. It occurred to me some time back that this would be the Achilles heel of the NZ success. Cold storage would be top the list for risk since for most other freight the virus would be too long at room temperature. A very small percentage of the population work in cold stores. I think a coincidence is highly unlikely. What worries me is that someone in the NZ administration is trying to cover backs in one way or another. So far that does not seem to have happened in NZ despite happening everywhere else.
 
Swedish journalist Emanuel Karlsten writes about the Swedish herd immunity approach, based on emails he has gotten access to through FOI requests.

(Edited to add: What I find the most "interesting" about this, the main reason I wanted to share it, are the differences between what Tegnell and FHM have been communicating to the public and the world through the FHM website, press conferences, in interviews etc; and the way he talks about it behind the scenes/in the emails. As you may remember, Tegnell has publicly and repeatedly very clearly denied herd immunity being their strategy...)

Tegnell-mejlen: Så fick flockimmuniteten fäste hos Folkhälsomyndigheten
https://emanuelkarlsten.se/tegnell-mejlen-sa-fick-flockimmuniteten-faste-hos-folkhalsomyndigheten/

Google Translate ("The Tegnell emails: This is how herd immunity gained a foothold with the Public Health Agency")

There's an article about it in Expressen too (today's most read article, apparently):

Expressen: Mail mellan Gisecke och Tegnell avslöjar inflytandet över Folkhälsomyndigheten
https://www.expressen.se/tv/nyheter...lojar-inflytandet-over-folkhalsomyndigheten-/

Article in Expressen yesterday:

Expressen: Folkhälsotopparnas mejl – om coronastrategin
https://www.expressen.se/tv/nyheter/coronaviruset/folkhalsotopparnas-mejl-om-coronastrategin/



 
Last edited:
mango said:
Swedish journalist Emanuel Karlsten writes about the Swedish herd immunity approach, based on emails he has gotten access to through FOI requests.

Tegnell-mejlen: Så fick flockimmuniteten fäste hos Folkhälsomyndigheten
https://emanuelkarlsten.se/tegnell-mejlen-sa-fick-flockimmuniteten-faste-hos-folkhalsomyndigheten/

Google Translate ("The Tegnell emails: This is how herd immunity gained a foothold with the Public Health Agency")

There's an article about it in Expressen too (today's most read article, apparently):

Expressen: Mail mellan Gisecke och Tegnell avslöjar inflytandet över Folkhälsomyndigheten
https://www.expressen.se/tv/nyheter...lojar-inflytandet-over-folkhalsomyndigheten-/

Article in Expressen yesterday:

Expressen: Folkhälsotopparnas mejl – om coronastrategin
https://www.expressen.se/tv/nyheter/coronaviruset/folkhalsotopparnas-mejl-om-coronastrategin/



Click to expand...

Some of the emails seem to suggest they wanted to keep the schools open explicitly to drive up infections towards immunity. This is appalling and no doubt lead to many avoidable deaths, as well as people with lifelong disability who, unless Sweden change their way about ME, will be dropped dead by the health care system.

Everyone involved in this decision should be fired. From a canon. Into the sun. Or just fired is fine but do the canon thing anyway for symbolism.
 
Jonathan Edwards said:
I wonder how history will recount all this.
Click to expand...

I wonder this too. Especially as there is a quality to current history that is different from any other time. People still have rather short memories for things but the internet keeps all information one way or another. There are studies kept in Sci-Hub and the internet archive along with screen captures of various pages held by many people.

This may make piecing together the various written records over time easier to collate. And just as a side issue I've noticed of late that 'eminent' websites have been trying to dodge being captured on the IA.

Also, the work of Margaret Williams in the UK and MedFeb in the US could use some updating along with appropriate references to show just how the interpretation of their (BPS) science changes according to audience and what can no longer be said because it has been found insupportable.

I admit having this info may not win the day sooner or later but it is a difference to consider. We must be ever vigilant of this group lobbying in quiet to reduce access through FoI requests also.
 
Finland is now recommending face masks in some districts where the numbers are currently rising (including Tornio-Kemi on the Swedish border), according to news articles today.

Masks are recommended in the following situations, for people over the age of 15:
  • On public transport
  • In public places where it is crowded and/or difficult to keep your distance from other people
  • In shops, but only if there's lots of people and you're unable to keep your distance to others
  • Travel to and from corona tests
  • While waiting for test results
  • Travel from risk areas
  • During quarantine
The local governments will be handing out free masks to people who can't afford to buy them.

https://www.hbl.fi/artikel/munskydd-och-atergang-till-distansarbete-foljd-av-usla-coronasiffror/
 
rvallee said:
Some of the emails seem to suggest they wanted to keep the schools open explicitly to drive up infections towards immunity. This is appalling and no doubt lead to many avoidable deaths, as well as people with lifelong disability who, unless Sweden change their way about ME, will be dropped dead by the health care system.

Everyone involved in this decision should be fired. From a canon. Into the sun. Or just fired is fine but do the canon thing anyway for symbolism.
Click to expand...

Listened to the "Briefing Room" on BBC Radio 4 earlier and found myself thinking - fair dues to the Swedes --- you couldn't get ethical approval to do a "control group" experiment like that (open the schools -- see how many teachers and pupils get infected ---) i.e. do nothing and then the Swedes volunteer to do it!

Say what you like but the Swedes are providing hard data re the risks. Not saying I'd like my secondary school kids coming back to a household which contains adults who are highly vulnerable though.
 
Of historical but also current interest. Article based on as yet unpublished research.
Surprising discovery: Coronavirus has shut down the world in the past

A suspected flu pandemic in 1889 was in fact due to a coronavirus, Danish research shows.
Click to expand...
So when Covid-19 hit earlier this year, researchers thought it was the first time the world had experienced a definite corona pandemic.

But in the TV program "The Mysteries of Denmark's killer diseases", which was broadcast last night on DR2, the two Danish researchers Lone Simonsen and Anders Gorm Pedersen were able to reveal that the world has actually been hit by a corona pandemic before.

In 1889, what was hitherto thought to be a really bad flu hit a large number of countries and ended up killing about a million people.
Click to expand...
For context, the population back the was about 1.6 billion (according to worldometers.info), so roughly equivalent to nearly 5 million dying today.
The corona eruption of 1889 lasted almost two years before it ebbed out. During the two years, there were three waves of the virus.
The first two were mild, while the third hit hard, says Lone Simonsen.
Click to expand...
Unlike today, however, the health authorities at the time did not really do anything to isolate and contain the virus. Not because they did not know how to do it, but because they did not consider it necessary.

This means that researchers can assess the effect of everything we do today to limit Covid-19.

- We can see how a corona pandemic behaves when nothing is done to slow it down. That way we can assess how well our initiatives are working today, she says and continues:

- And the closure and this of putting people in quarantine has in that optics been very effective. We have stepped on the virus with big, fat feet.
Click to expand...
https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/viden/kro...lse-coronavirus-har-tidligere-lagt-verden-ned (Danish)

https://translate.google.com/transl...lse-coronavirus-har-tidligere-lagt-verden-ned

A quick google shows this 2005 study already speculated about the possibility of a previous corona pandemic:

Complete Genomic Sequence of Human Coronavirus OC43: Molecular Clock Analysis Suggests a Relatively Recent Zoonotic Coronavirus Transmission Event
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC544107/
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom