Since then I've heard some say that we know cortisol is not differently abundant in pwME vs healthy controls, and others say that it could yet be so.
I think we know that it is not different enough to explain the clinical picture of ME/CFS.
Moreover, the clinical picture is unequivocally not that of cortisol deficiency (as in Addison's).
I was not clear why the genetics homes in on HPA specifically? It seems to home in on neural mechanisms and we have seen various clues pointing to nociceptor pathways, hypothalamus, anterior ventral cortex, nucleus accumbens etc. but not specifically HPA axis. (And simple things are missing, like hypotension, sodium loss and adrenal atrophy on CT maybe.)
My guess is that there may be a lot of evidence from elsewhere indicating that CRH is not just the lord and master of cortisol production in the way students may be taught. Hypothalamic damage produces a range of clinical pictures including polyphagy with morbid obesity and growth hormone failure but I am not sure that it commonly leads to hypocortisolism. I rather suspect that CRH may have a more subtle role in cortisol regulation and, importantly, other roles, that we tend to ignore. I wouldn't be surprised if CRH knockouts had fairly normal cortisol levels.
So if we take the post mortem findings on CRH cells seriously (but not as gospel), which seems fair, and add in what we know about narcolepsy (where there isn't symptomatic hypocortisolism either) then my guess is that we should be thinking in terms of some other regulatory role of CRH that has been overlooked. that might have to do with sleep cycles, lipid metabolism, leptin, or whatever.
Also, I've heard researchers say that good hypotheses mostly arise from analysing data rather than from what I'm trying
I can assure you,
@Chris Ponting, that these people are as wrong as you think they are.
a synthesis drawing from different parts of ME/CFS research
I would recommend going wider still and looking for every clinical experiment of nature that knocks down one or other option until there is barely one left.
even when we alight on the "right one(s)", far from all data will then support it.
My personal experience is that when you alight on the 'right one' all the data does fit (at least if replicable and robust). It fits with an uncanny precision that only real biology could have thought up. When it happened to me I found it hard to believe that a single experiment with 50 qualitative yes/no predictions could come up with 50 bits of fitting data. I thought God was having me on.
For some strange reason I received an email today from a clinical medical student who was attached to my 'firm' 25 years ago. He wanted to thank me for being the first person to teach him something about how scientific problems can be soluble. He remembered that I had said that there were major medical mysteries that could be solved by the students in the room if they put their minds to it, because the data were available. The difficult part is not interpreting
your data but repeatedly building and destroying causal models that draw on information from half a dozen fields time and time again until you hit on one that simply doesn't budge. New bits of data feed in to that but chiefly by prompting a new model from a new angle that suddenly makes sense of everything already there.
I guess really I am writing this to try to persuade the amazing citizen scientists who have gathered around the problem just how possible it is to solve the insoluble. There is only one way the biology will fit with the clinical disease we call ME/CFS. And as is said 'nature is subtle but not vindictive'. When someone hits on the right idea it will prove irrefutable.