Preprint Shear Stress Tolerance Threshold, eNOS Uncoupling, and the Two-Threshold Model of [PEM] in [LC]: A Mechanistic Hypothesis [...], 2026, Karipidis et al

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Shear Stress Tolerance Threshold, eNOS Uncoupling, and the Two-Threshold Model of Post-Exertional Malaise in Long COVID: A Mechanistic Hypothesis with Implications for Physiotherapy Practice

Karipidis, Yiannis K.; Karipidis, Konstantinos Y.

Background
A subset of Long COVID patients presents with post-exertional malaise (PEM), delayed symptom exacerbation 12–48 hours after minimal mobilisation, chest tightness, dyspnea at rest, suppressed heart rate variability (HRV), and cognitive impairment with consistently normal macrovascular cardiac investigations.

Hypothesis
This paper proposes that SARS-CoV-2-induced endothelialitis may, in a specific vascular-PEM phenotype, cause progressive depletion of tetrahydrobiopterin (BH4) and accumulation of its oxidised form (BH2). BH2 competitively occupies the eNOS cofactor site, causing functional eNOS uncoupling: the enzyme produces superoxide (O₂⁻) rather than nitric oxide (NO). Superoxide combines with residual NO to form peroxynitrite (ONOO⁻), which simultaneously destroys remaining BH4 and nitrates dihydrofolate reductase (DHFR), creating a self-sustaining vicious cycle. The core insight: this is not NO deficiency it is NO misdirection.

Two-Threshold Framework
A central contribution of this model is the distinction between two mechanistically independent thresholds: the PEM threshold the exertional load at which the nitro-oxidative cascade becomes self-amplifying and the functional shear stress tolerance threshold the minimum sustained laminar shear stimulus required to maintain GTPCH-1-driven BH4 synthesis. These thresholds are not the same variable and must not be managed as one. Current rehabilitation approaches targeting only the PEM threshold may inadvertently allow progressive BH4 pool erosion through insufficient laminar shear stimulus, thereby lowering the PEM threshold over time.

Biomarker Validation Framework
A tiered biomarker panel is proposed for prospective validation, with emphasis on dynamic pre/post-exertion measurement. The proposed signature: elevated nitrotyrosine, reduced BH4/BH2 ratio, elevated ADMA, impaired flow-mediated dilation, and suppressed post-exertional HRV, all worsening 12–24 hours after a controlled low-intensity exercise challenge. This model generates a falsifiable prediction: if this post-exertional shift is not demonstrated in patients meeting vascular-PEM phenotype criteria, the proposed mechanism would not be supported.

Physiotherapy Implications
The two-threshold model mechanistically challenges current graded exercise therapy guidelines for Long COVID, which do not distinguish between activity modality and hemodynamic quality. Heart rate alone does not capture the endothelial stimulus: two activity patterns producing identical heart rates may generate protective laminar shear (10–20 dyn/cm²) or harmful oscillatory shear (0–5 dyn/cm²) respectively. The therapeutic goal in this phenotype is shear tolerance threshold maintenance and progressive restoration not conventional capacity building.

Scope
This hypothesis is phenotype-specific and does not propose a universal mechanism for Long COVID or ME/CFS. It addresses one biochemically coherent pathway within a specific vascular-PEM subset and is offered as a framework for prospective clinical investigation

Web | DOI | PDF | Zenodo | Preprint
 
I don’t have the knowledge to assess their hypothesis, but I appreciate that they have made clear predictions and proposed how to test it.

Although I’m a bit worried by their uncritical reading of the literature where they claim that GET is how PEM is usually treated.
 
I've seen many much worse hypothesis papers, even in these pages. This one is humble and limited and reasonable.

Hypotheses are ... not bad. I see theories as the vessels in which we can collect data. They are also the measuring cup in which we measure our data: is this hypothesis disproved by the data?

The only problem is that because theories are cheap to make and data is expensive to collect we have far more cups than water to fill them.
 
I'm wondering if it might have to do with how GET is being promoted by the healthcare professionals in Greece. Just a guess. I don't know anything about the views and treatments there.
I think there is a misunderstanding. Our preprint actually provides the biochemical evidence (eNOS uncoupling) for why traditional exercise (like GET) can be harmful. The 'Two-Threshold Model' we propose is designed to prevent PEM by identifying the vascular limits that were previously ignored. We are not promoting GET we are proposing a way to avoid its dangers through vascular biology https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19474803
 
I don’t have the knowledge to assess their hypothesis, but I appreciate that they have made clear predictions and proposed how to test it.

Although I’m a bit worried by their uncritical reading of the literature where they claim that GET is how PEM is usually treated.
Thank you for the feedback. Our aim is exactly to provide the biochemical 'why' behind the failure of traditional exercise approaches like GET, replacing them with a safe, threshold-based framework.
 
Was thinking about this a bit but now too foggy continue. Here are a few related threads:

- Found this thread where it was mentioned that measuring BH4 is tricky (the paper linked there actually claimed pwME had higher BH4, but the S4ME comments suggest the researchers may have mishandled their samples).

- A study linked here found no elevation of ADMA in LC, but their selection criteria sounds very broad, as usual.
 
What is endothelialitis @YiannisK ? I spent my career in inflammation research and have never heard of it. All I can see in the abstract is some rather stretched out speculations. As far as I can work out there is no point in trying to get people with Long Covid or ME/CFS to do exercises of any sort.
 
Was thinking about this a bit but now too foggy continue. Here are a few related threads:

- Found this thread where it was mentioned that measuring BH4 is tricky (the paper linked there actually claimed pwME had higher BH4, but the S4ME comments suggest the researchers may have mishandled their samples).

- A study linked here found no elevation of ADMA in LC, but their selection criteria sounds very broad, as usual.

BH4 findings from Gottschalk et al.: this study found elevated serum BH4 in ME/CFS, which appears to contradict deficiency models. However, as the S4ME community has already noted, BH4 measurement is extremely problematic BH4 has a half-life of 16 minutes in PBS at room temperature, and the study's handling protocol likely caused significant degradation. What they may have been measuring is a compensatory upregulation of BH4 synthesis (via GCH1) in response to increased oxidative consumption the body producing more because it's losing more. Our model predicts exactly this: the issue is not total BH4 production but the BH4/BH2 ratio at the eNOS cofactor site, which static serum measurement cannot capture. This is why we propose dynamic pre/post-exertion measurement as the critical test.


Preprint: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19474803
 
What is endothelialitis @YiannisK ? I spent my career in inflammation research and have never heard of it. All I can see in the abstract is some rather stretched out speculations. As far as I can work out there is no point in trying to get people with Long Covid or ME/CFS to do exercises of any sort.
Thank you for engaging with the work.


On the terminology: "endotheliitis" (also spelled "endothelialitis" in some sources) was coined by Varga et al. in The Lancet (2020) it describes SARS-CoV-2 direct infection of endothelial cells with inflammatory infiltrate, confirmed histologically at autopsy. It's well-established in COVID vascular research. I acknowledge the spelling inconsistency in our manuscript and have noted it for correction.

On the substance: the hypothesis does not propose exercise for people with Long COVID or ME/CFS. It proposes the opposite that current exercise recommendations are dangerous precisely because they don't distinguish between haemodynamic patterns that protect vs. damage the endothelium. The core argument is that shear stress quality (laminar vs. turbulent) matters more than intensity, and that crossing the PEM threshold is biochemically destructive. The framework explicitly defines four phenotypes, one of which (Phenotype D severe) contraindicates exercise entirely until biochemical stabilisation is achieved.
 
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