Coronavirus - worldwide spread and control

[spinoza577]

As we can see in the chart available here, that argument makes no sense. https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

As well, Sweden are 12th on the chart of Total Excess Deaths per million people and 10th on Total Excess Deaths relative to historical average for same dates, so seems killer enough to me to take far more seriously than the Swedes seem to be doing at the moment.

No one doubts the peaks in march/april.

But what does it mean in context.

So euromomo countries had 2018 very high excess mortality from flue 140.000 over, say, 3-4 months

now with corona in 6 weeks or so 190.000.



Where now is the killer virus, yes , its not that it is no problem, but then? Is it justified to risk normal live?

Probably it was only because the virus is new, and some countries including UK had LOW mortality quite long time before.

 

[Andy]

And while I'm posting don't forget all the additional post-infectious disease, like ME, that Sweden (and all other countries that haven't been serious in controlling it) will be seeing due to more of their population being infected - I don't understand ME patients who don't have an appreciation of how serious that will be, coronavirus doesn't need to kill people to ruin lives, as we well know.

 

[Wonko]

The UK is clearly the best country in Europe, at dying.

Despite having the a world beating track and trace system combined with a health service envied by everyone.

I guess, as we're 'winning', our figures do compare favourably with other comparable countries.

 

[spinoza577]

And from that same link is this graphic, where we see that 5,918 have died from coronavirus in Sweden, compared to 278 in Norway, 351 in Finland, and 679 in Denmark. Now my assumption is that we are seeing a difference there in how seriously coronavirus was taken.

It´s covid-19 positive deaths, I guess. So it tells not much, and for sure not already the truth. See excess deaths on a wider range.

And while I'm posting don't forget all the additional post-infectious disease, like ME, that Sweden (and all other countries that haven't been serious in controlling it) will be seeing due to more of their population being infected - I don't understand ME patients who don't have an appreciation of how serious that will be, coronavirus doesn't need to kill people to ruin lives, as we well know.

How relevant at the epidemiological level is it then, do we have data?

 

[Andy]

Is it justified to risk normal live?

Yes, because, you know, lives matter more than "normal life". And countries that have taken it more seriously are the ones doing better economically and are more quickly getting back to normal life.

Probably it was only because the virus is new, and some countries including UK had LOW mortality quite long time before.

Probably??

And using that "low mortality" rate argument, if coronavirus isn't, as you suggest, as lethal as is claimed, why has the mortality rate gone up?

 

[Andy]

It´s covid-19 positive deaths, I guess. So it tells not much, and for sure not already the truth. See excess deaths on a wider range.

I've highlighted how badly Sweden is doing on excess deaths already to you already. And, for sure, it's accurate enough.

How relevant at the epidemiological level is it then, do we have data?

Very relevant.

 

[Trish]

I don't know how to screenshot this:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111779/coronavirus-death-rate-europe-by-country/
It shows Sweden with the 5th highest death rate from Covid per hundred thousand population in Europe. Worse rates are in Belgium, Spain, UK and Italy.

Comparing with other Scandinavian countries:
Sweden 57.77
Denmark 11.66
Finland 6.34
Norway 5.22

I'm not surprised the UK is one of the worst. We have had appalling failures in test / track / trace / isolate systems that are still pretty useless, a lot of problems at the height of the first wave with lack of protective equipment and tests, infected people being transferred into care homes and spreading infections, and over the summer, many people ignoring social distancing and not wearing face coverings.

 

[Wonko]

The UK on the other hand has the 5th highest number of deaths from covid-19 in the world, along with having the sixth highest death rate, per million of, current, population.

The world includes other countries which, currently, have much higher populations, than the UK currently has.

India, which has a population 20 times the size of the UK's, has an eighth of the death rate per million, despite a much weaker health infrastructure.

The same world also has many countries with health systems with vastly less resources than the UK's NHS.

In fact the only country higher than us, with an equivalently resourced health care system, is Italy, who didn't really have any warning, so can't IMO be seen as being on a level playing field.

F - Must try harder!!

 

[spinoza577]

Yes, because, you know, lives matter more than "normal life". And countries that have taken it more seriously are the ones doing better economically and are more quickly getting back to normal life.

The implication of "normal live" is of course harm as well. After the Lehman crash, in the following years, diseases went up. There are more implication, of course.

Probably??

And using that "low mortality" rate argument, if coronavirus isn't, as you suggest, as lethal as is claimed, why has the mortality rate gone up?

I think the mortality rate is now also by the WHO estimated to be in the range of 0.23, compared to 0,1 for flu.

Very relevant.

This is not answering the question for data.

I don't know how to screenshot this:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111779/coronavirus-death-rate-europe-by-country/
It shows Sweden with the 5th highest death rate from Covid per hundred thousand population in Europe. Worse rates are in Belgium, Spain, UK and Italy.

Comparing with other Scandinavian countries:
Sweden 57.77
Denmark 11.66
Finland 6.34
Norway 5.22

Again, this doesn´t say anything in itself. If you screen for deaths with candida albicans you might come to similar conclusions. As by now, there is no catastrophe in excess deaths on a wider ranger. In the past two years or so Sweden had much lower mortality as compared to other Nordic countries, I had linked to the graphs in this post:

@mango I got it from a vid linked to here, I think they still used euromomo data
About the Nordic countries at about 9:00, may be best to start at about 8:30

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I've highlighted how badly Sweden is doing on excess deaths already to you already. And, for sure, it's accurate enough.

Your graphs seem indeed to be from Euromomo (which I refer to, too), but you might want to look at the whole period for coming to an judgement. Your article from the Financial Times doesn´t manage to do so. Also your dots on total deaths doesn´t indicate a problem specific to Sweden.

 

[Amw66]

The implication of "normal live" is of course harm as well. After the Lehman crash, in the following years, diseases went up. There are more implication, of course.


I think the mortality rate is now also by the WHO estimated to be in the range of 0.23, compared to 0,1 for flu.


This is not answering the question for data.

Again, this doesn´t say anything in itself. If you screen for deaths with candida albicans you might come to similar conclusions. As by now, there is no catastrophe in excess deaths on a wider ranger. In the past two years or so Sweden had much lower mortality as compared to other Nordic countries, I had linked to the graphs in this post:

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Your graphs seem indeed to be from Euromomo (which I refer to, too), but you might want to look at the whole period for coming to an judgement. Your article from the Financial Times doesn´t manage to do so. Also your dots on total deaths doesn´t indicate a problem specific to Sweden.

Ft data cam be downloaded
https://github.com/Financial-Times/coronavirus-excess-mortality-data

 

[Amw66]

FT customisable comparison tool

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart...ative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=deaths
7 day comparison in screenshot below UK/ Sweden

 

[Amw66]

I don't know what exists in rest UK , or further afield but Scottish government have a dashboard linked to testing results which is broken down to neighbourhoods .

I forwarded the link for town specific info for some relatives, to help them make informed decisions , and check other areas which they may travel to .
You can customise dates - a useful tool

https://public.tableau.com/profile/...OVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

 

[Andy]

The pursuit of herd immunity is a folly – so who's funding this bad science?

The truth is that a strategy of pursuing “herd immunity” is nothing more than a fringe view. There is no real scientific divide over this approach, because there is no science to justify its usage in the case of Covid-19. We know that when it comes to other coronaviruses, immunity is only temporary. The president of the UK’s Academy of Medical Sciences, in a detailed rebuttal, describes the declaration’s proposals as “unethical and simply not possible”.

It’s time to stop asking the question “is this sound science?” We know it is not. Instead, we should be more curious about the political interests surrounding the declaration. Within hours of its launch, it had seeded political and ideological impact disproportionate with its scientific significance. The hashtag #signupstartliving began trending on social media. Its three signatories were later received by Alex Azar, the US secretary of health and human services, and by Scott Atlas, recently appointed as Donald Trump’s health adviser, who tweeted on 8 October that “top scientists all over the world are lining up with the @realDonaldTrump #Covid_19 policy”. And on a call convened by the White House, two senior officials in Trump’s administration cited the declaration.

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...rd-immunity-funding-bad-science-anti-lockdown

 

[MSEsperanza]

Masks made Czech Republic the envy of Europe, now they've blown it - CNN, October 19, 2020

[...]There are currently more new Covid-19 cases per million people recorded in the Czech Republic than in any other major country in the world. On Friday, more than 11,100 new cases were reported in a single day, a new record. In the first 17 days of October, more people have died of the virus in the Czech Republic than during the previous eight months of the epidemic combined.

[...] Czech data scientist Petr Ludwig was among those pushing for that mask mandate back in mid-March, months before western health authorities or even the World Health Organization was recommending them.
Ludwig had just flown from New York to Prague, and says he was the only person on his flight with a face covering. When he arrived home, he dug through the scientific evidence supporting face coverings and made a YouTube video explaining why he was convinced masks were the answer. The Czech-language video attracted more than 600,000 views, in a country of only 10 million. [...]

Days later, Babis announced the mask mandate.

"We didn't convince the government, we convinced public by [social media] influencers and then government followed because our government is slightly populist. So they followed the opinion of the public," Ludwig told CNN.
Medical masks were in short supply at the time, which was one of the reasons why the WHO didn't recommend their use. Faced with the shortage, thousands of Czechs dusted off their sewing machines and became part of a wartime-like effort to make and distribute masks where they were needed. One group of volunteers created an interactive map of need which resulted in more than 600,000 masks, made mostly by individual volunteers, to be handed out around the country.

The Czech Republic's first wave of infection peaked in late March at 408 cases in one day. The highest single-day death toll was just 18, in April. On June 30, the Czech Republic recorded no new Covid-19 deaths. That same day, an outdoor street party in Prague celebrated the end of the pandemic. Masks were not part of the dress code. Theaters reopened, indoor dining returned, people were allowed to travel abroad. Even Babis, the Prime Minister, went to Greece for a vacation.
In almost every way, the country had regained the normalcy that people in across Europe were craving. It wouldn't last long.
"We didn't see dead people, we didn't see people with coronavirus in hospitals -- the Czech people thought that this is nonsense and we don't need to wear masks," said Dr. Sery.

When the government lifted the strict mask mandate over the summer, most people left theirs at home. The virus was slowly starting to make a comeback. Even the health minister conceded his country's victory lap was premature.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/19/europe/czech-republic-coronavirus-intl/index.html

 

[Snowdrop]

The guardian could do with having a seminar for their science writing staff to refresh them on how to do due diligence when reporting. I know for sure that Sarah Boseley could use this kind of help as she has in the past whenever writing on ME been a big cheerleader for the BPS as they are of course the experts.

A lesson in not accepting authority just because they sound important. Sometimes as in anything mistakes are made. Journalists are supposed to be the gatekeepers of sorts for when that happens.

Edited to add my main point:

A small part of this is on the people at the guardian who didn't do their job. As with so many others when you let politics disguised as science through without challenge or question this is the result.

 

[Esther12]

The pursuit of herd immunity is a folly – so who's funding this bad science?

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...rd-immunity-funding-bad-science-anti-lockdown

Some people might be particularly interested in this given the authors: Trish Greenhalgh, Martin McKee and Michelle Kelly-Irving

 

[TrixieStix]

It seems that the suspicions discussed on here previously about cold storage have turned out to be true.

"Chinese health authorities investigating a recent Covid-19 outbreak say they have discovered live coronavirus on frozen food packaging, a finding that suggests the virus can survive in cold supply chains."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...virus-found-on-frozen-food-packaging-in-china

 

[anciendaze]

Just in case nobody else has linked this, I want to include this link to a video in which Dr. W. Ian Lipkin describes the plan to depend on herd immunity alone as obscene. His estimates of mortality are not wildly overblown. We really could lose over a million Americans.

Here in Florida our peak in case numbers took place in July. Over 2,000 people remain hospitalized. We are still averaging close to 100 deaths per day on a weekly basis.

 

[anciendaze]

Today Florida reported 3,662 new cases and 84 resident deaths. This is unusually high for a Monday report, and may indicate an increasing case rate. Previous 7-day averaged cases run just under 3,000 per day (2,988).

Florida has between 4 million and 5 million people at increased risk. Even if I assume 20% have been infected and are now immune, this leaves a huge vulnerable population.

 

[Andy]