I am lucky in that I seem to be one of the people that does not trend towards deteriorating continually. I have never been severe or very severe. I would say I lowered my baseline in January 2026, but that was from mild to moderate. I've been able to go on trips where I can take a walk for 10-30 minutes outside or sit upright and socialize for multiple hours with a lessened PEM payback than when I am at home. Somehow, all that I did this summer has not lowered my baseline. It seems to only be vigorous physical activity that can do that. It doesn't sound like a road trip or a plane ride is even conceivable to those here who are severe.
I think it is both possible that many people who are severe would not be if they received adequate advice to not exercise and that some people tend towards severe no matter what they do. I would not be surprised if we have a similar set of disease variations as multiple sclerosis. Of course, ME/CFS is not MS, but I think we can draw some parallels. Looking at the
National MS Society (USA), there are four types of MS:
- Clinically Isolated Syndrome (CIS): Clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) refers to a first episode of neurologic symptoms like those of MS. These symptoms vary from person to person but commonly include bladder issues, vision problems, and difficulty with coordination, balance, walking, speaking, and swallowing. CIS is considered MS when certain criteria are met.
- Relapse-Remitting MS (RRMS): Relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) is the most common MS disease course. RRMS shows clearly defined attacks of new or increasing neurologic symptoms. These attacks are also called relapses. They are followed by periods of partial or complete recovery, or remission. About 85% of people with MS are initially diagnosed with RRMS. When the disease course progresses, it is considered to be secondary progressive MS.
- Secondary Progressive MS (SPMS): Some people diagnosed with RRMS eventually go on to have a secondary progressive MS (SPMS) course. In this course, neurologic function declines progressively and disability increases over time.Each person’s experience with SPMS is unique. In SPMS, you may have relapses, as well as periods of stability.
- Primary Progressive MS (PPMS): With PPMS, neurologic function worsens or disability accumulates as soon as symptoms appear. There are no early relapses or remissions. About 15% of people with MS are diagnosed with PPMS. Each person’s experience with PPMS is unique. PPMS can have brief periods of stability, with or without a relapse or new MRI activity. It can also have periods of increasing disability, with or without new relapses or lesions on an MRI.
I don't think CIS is relevant to us right now, but maybe we could liken it to the first episode of PEM. On its own, you can't definitely say it's ME/CFS. Sometimes you overdo it with your hike or you have a really stressful week, and it takes time to recover. Not too concerning. When you have multiple episodes of PEM, then you start looking at ME/CFS.
I would say a relapse-remitting form is the most likely form of ME/CFS. Complete recovery and remission, especially long-term, is rare, but people can have times of stability mixed in with episode of PEM. I would say I'm like that. I suspect that many people who were subjected to GET or were not given the supports to adequately pace would be milder and have a similar pattern. However, many people are pushed past their limits and into severe.
Severe ME/CFS could be likened to SPMS, but I think it's a little more complicated. It doesn't seem like it's always progressive as it is in MS. However, how people transition from RRMS to SPMS is interesting and could be comparable. From
the organization's page about RRMS:
"Before approved [disease modifying therapies] were available, the transition from RRMS to
secondary progressive MS (SPMS) occurred in about half of people who had been living with RRMS for 10 to 20 years. With better access to DMTs, fewer people with RRMS transition to SPMS and the transition happens later in the course of the disease."
We don't have disease modifying therapies, but we know that continually triggering PEM can worsen someone's baseline and that encouraging proper pacing can stabilize someone's baseline. Maybe those that go into severe territory cross a threshold that changes the disease pattern somehow. At the very least, it becomes a set of symptoms and severity that make mild and moderate ME/CFS almost seem like a different disease. The way that I live compared to the way that some of you live is miles apart.
But what about the people who seem to get worse no matter what they do? I think this is where the comparison becomes the most salient. There could be a kind of ME/CFS that is progressive like PPMS. SPMS and PPMS are both progressive, but there are two distinct paths to getting there.
Now, how do we go about studying this? Genetic data, as others have pointed out, could be interesting. I don't know what the questionnaire for DecodeME looked like.
@Kitty said they asked if people were homebound, but I worry that might not be specific enough as I consider myself homebound but not severe. I think we already have a hint through McGrath et al. 2026 study that found that those with early-onset disease were more likely to be severe. Maybe separating cases by early-onset and late-onset would bring about genetic differences too?
The brain maturation information that
@obeat mentioned is also interesting. I wonder what kind of research can be done there, neuroimaging or otherwise. There's of course the concern with doing too many tests on severe people or physically strenuous tests which makes extensive testing trickier. The brain biopsies are another avenue currently being pursued.
What other types of research could help us see if there's a progressive form of ME/CFS or if another process pushes people to being severe?