There's conflict of interest and then there's bias, they're different but overlapping constructs.
People tend to think of pharma money when they think of coi, but that's only one type of coi. We should be much, much more concerned about other, more subtle ones. They are really messing with our science.
The concept of COI is that you have a greater chance of a future reward if the outcome goes one way than if it goes another.
- If you design a study so that you will only get funds to complete it if the initial results go a certain way, then that's a COI.
- If one particular outcome would reduce your chances of getting other grants in the future (e.g., the DWP won't give you any more money), then that's a COI.
- If your next job promotion depends on whether you publish the study in a prestigious journal, and the likelihood of that is greater if you get a certain outcome (which it often is), then that's a COI.
- if you stand to get more fame, royalties, paid travel, book deals, or more therapy clients if the outcome goes a certain way, then that's a COI.
Its not a COI if you get the benefit irrespective of study outcome.
A COI does not occur just because you believe in one outcome as more likely than the other. At the core of a COI is probable future reward beyond the research itself. Belief can still cause bias though, massive bias, but that's different from a coi.
So a COI causes bias, but not all bias is due to a COI.