The biology of coronavirus COVID-19 - including research and treatments

Do we know yet what is the relative lethality of this new variant?

 

https://www.sciencealert.com/molecu...ocks-all-sars-cov-2-variants-in-cell-cultures

 

Someone representing South Africa is saying that no one is very ill from it (yet).

Here's a link:

Covid: South Africa 'punished' for detecting new Omicron variant - BBC News

The head of the South African Medical Association told the BBC that the cases found so far in South Africa - where only about 24% of the population is fully vaccinated - were not severe, but said investigations into the variant were still at a very early stage.

"The patients are mostly complaining about a sore body and tiredness, extreme tiredness and we see it in the younger generation, it's not the older people... We're not talking about patients that might go straight to a hospital and be admitted," Dr Angelique Coetzee said.

 

And perhaps that might just present more of a problem ......

 

Keep in mind that any new variant has to compete in the ecological space with other variants. Delta displaced other variants (some of which simply because it was more transmissible and had to overcome the various social restrictions implemented to reduce spread. Given that those other variants were more likely to evade vaccine-induced immunity, the spread of Delta might not have been the worst that could happen.

Now that many governments have mostly abandoned social restrictions for the fully vaccinated, this means the virus doesn't actually have to be more transmissible than Delta to get a foothold - it simply has to be better at escaping vaccine-induced or pre-existing immunity.

 

A virus that doesn't trigger withdrawal of the infected person from society due to symptoms is more likely to spread... this highly "maladaptive, depressive behaviour" as some would call it seems to be a powerful tool for a member of the human herd to influence viral evolution towards less dangerous variants.

Let's hope the omicron variant is less dangerous and spreading because it causes mainly milder symptoms.

 

I think we will need to wait between two weeks and one or two months to have the first real inkling. Its far too soon to have an idea. It could be more lethal, but it might also be anything up to a lot less lethal. There is no way to tell until we have the epidemiology and lab results.

However the more pressing question is what is the disability and long term illness outcome from this variant? I would suggest we might need three to six months to see that.

Also if the variant is about the same lethality it may overwhelm our hospitals in any serious wave, presuming that the projected infectiveness is confirmed as higher than delta. Worse again if it escapes vaccine and/or natural immunity.

 

Despite the repeated warnings of health leaders, failure to put vaccines into the arms of people in the developing world is now coming back to haunt us. Only 6 percent of Africa’s 1.2 billion people are vaccinated.

South Africa has the highest HIV rate in the world. So not surprising that the variant is originating from an area where there is a high rate of people with compromised immune systems and low vaccinations.

 

Yes. But it is intellectual property laws that are to blame. Countries like South Africa, Nigeria or India are quite capable of producing vaccines at high volume, if they were able to do so without paying prohibitive license fees.

The notable exception is Cuba which managed to produce more than one locally developed vaccine and they are surprisingly effective too.

 

Today in my city we have detected 2 people from Nigeria with the Omicor variant. They were saying that the primary symptom is exhaustion, no loss of smell etc

 

The problem with early experiences with Omicron are that they do not necessarily predict long term outcomes. We really need a good number to fully resolve their infection, and then some months more to look at long term issues. Its encouraging that many sources are reporting it seems a milder infection, but Covid has done that in some groups early in the infection only to become much worse later in the infection. We can hope its a much less dangerous virus, but we cannot yet be certain. We also known nothing about Long Covid issues yet.

We will have a much better idea in a month, and I am hoping we start the new year with a much better outlook.

We also need data on people with natural and vaccine immunity versus those with neither.

 

https://www.medscape.co.uk/viewarti...44&src=mkm_ret_211202_mscpmrk_newsalertuk_int

Antibody treatment approved for early administration in mild-moderate covid, days 1-5

 

"The first at-home treatment for Covid is to be offered to patients by Christmas as ministers roll out the antiviral pill to help protect the most vulnerable from the omicron variant.

Sajid Javid, the Health Secretary, is preparing to announce the start of a national pilot of Lagevrio, also known as Molnupiravir – the "game-changing" pill that Britain became the first country to license last month.

Under the plans, the NHS – with the help of pharmacies – is expected to deliver courses of the tablet to clinically vulnerable and immunosuppressed patientswithin as little as 48 hours of them testing positive for Covid."

Daily Telegraph 4th Dec

I presume that those of us who are classified as immunosuppressed should be eligible for this.
Will be interesting to see some statistics on how helpful this is.

 

Wondering ... has anyone picked up yet on whether Omicron shows up more quickly after infection than previous variants? Just wondering if I need to change frequency/pattern of lateral flow testing, or anything like that.

 

I don't know about testing for sure, but I keep coming across people saying it replicates much faster than delta, which would imply, if accurate, that it is in higher numbers faster and hence detectable earlier.

 

I saw a comment on Twitter (sorry lost it now) that Omicron spread widely at a party where all had done LFTs just before attending. So it seems it might be infectious before being detectable.

 

Yes, our daughter was doing daily LFTs and got badly ill with what was almost certainly omicron and only came positive on LFT around the fifth day. It looks as if LFT is a waste of time as an indicator of preclinical infection. My wife was negative too, when ill having caught it off our daughter.

 

Is LFT a rapid test?

 

Lateral flow test. The at home ones you do with a swab.