The biology of coronavirus COVID-19 - including research and treatments

My review of googled publications suggests that delta is not dramatically mutated from past covid-19 (so reasonable to assume it will behave much the same until proven otherwise),
the main differences (identifed and verified so far ETA I mean just that there’s limited delta variant specific published info that I could find due to timescale) being that
significantly more of the virus is produced in the lungs
(so the odds of transmission go way up, making fleeting indoor contact more likely to result in exposure and transmission)
and the time from exposure to being contagious yourself is significantly shorter (more likely to transmit in the early stages when you don’t realise it’s important).

This greater density of virus means that some of the earlier predictions about surface transmission are more reasonable (remember those trials where they sprayed heaps of virus on surfaces and tested them later? - but then reviewers pointed out that the concentration of virus in the spray was greater than a realworld sneeze was likely to provide - now it’s a better model for delta perhaps).
At this stage it seems unlikely to be more than that, just more (ETA: density, not necessarily more durability than statisitics gives it) than the lower level governments have since grown accustomed to.

Just my gleaning of research findings plus supposition, not authoritative.

 

I doubt it is much different. Delta is slightly better at getting into and out of cells once it is already in your body. It isn't any better at surviving on surfaces.

 

I don't have a reference, sorry, but a few days ago I read a news article about one of the UK train companies who did a comprehensive survey of surfaces like handrails in stations and carriages and also 1 hour air collections at different times of day.

They found no trace of virus.

That is not an argument for no mask wearing as you could be standing next to someone who is excreting virus but it made them confident in their cleaning systems.

I also read that there is not much evidence for surface transmission when following patient contacts. Not to say it can't happen but the virus is so widespread it would be apparent by now if it was common.

Handwashing and disinfecting has probably been the best defence.

 

It was in the Evening Standard, certainly.

 

https://twitter.com/user/status/1424011542195023878


Most identified cases are mild. Hard to tell what policies will be derived from this. If the assumption is that mild cases are acceptable, there may be growing incentives to stamp down hard on denying Long Covid as it would be the main argument against simply pretending it's all over.

 

Interesting thread
https://twitter.com/user/status/1422595200615133189

 

Neurochemical signs of astrocytic and neuronal injury in acute COVID-19 normalizes during long-term follow-up
Kanberg et al
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/ebiom/article/PIIS2352-3964(21)00305-4/fulltext

Press release by University of Gothenburg
https://www.gu.se/en/news/no-signs-of-brain-injury-post-acute-covid-19

"No signs of brain injury post-acute COVID-19
Sahlgrenska Academy, Sweden

In a recent study from University of Gothenburg, it has been shown that all participants achieve normalization of CNS injury biomarkers, regardless of previous disease severity or persistent neurological symptoms. Indicating that post-COVID-19 neurological sequalae are not due to active brain injury."

Press release in Swedish.

 

The Tweeter is simply incorrect. 77% of the population with one dose means they have not reached "herd immunity" for R0>5.
The current numbers in Iceland are similar to those predicted (in a previous post) by the Grattan institute.

 

Does anyone know when Novavax plans to apply for approval in UK?

Will it be in time for autumn boosters? Has UK bought any Novavax?

 

Has anything been published re Valneva vaccine trials ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-55840567

 

Likely in a few months when they actually have some supply.

This is speculation, but I expect Novavax to pivot at some stage to suggest that it is safer for young adults and children, compared to the other vaccines. If it is genuinely safer, it is likely to be the option used for under 12s.

 

I'm reading "How We Could Turn COVID Against Itself" on Scribd.

Check it out: https://www.scribd.com/article/519984203

 

That link is paywalled for me...

https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/how-we-could-turn-covid-against-itself/

In vitro research is a long way from clinical application...

 

sadly that's an issues for a lot of things

 

https://twitter.com/user/status/1427368036101607440

 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.10...afMD1jBeG30g3VkmK9MIJZLUC88vU90eMiBuUW5P4Oytg

Vaccine efficacy against alpha and delta variants are compared. On fb groups I have read many reports of individuals not proceeding to the second vaccine but evidence on the crucial nature of the second jab emerges here.

 

https://twitter.com/user/status/1427738549584076801

 

Not sure where to post this. Could be helpful to use, if needing to.

I wouldn't share the link though. The introduction to ME/CFS is watered down.
(Highlighting is mine.)

Myalgic Encephalomyelitis/Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (ME/CFS) | CDC

 

I find it extraordinary that we're not on the risk list of having worse outcomes. Most of us got ME from a viral illness. It seems likely that we have a genetic propensity for that. So we can surely expect to do badly with Covid - and indeed, to lose more function than we already have, as you say, Sean.