Our experts are saying the same thing, Corona might become like the flu where vulnerable people are recommended to get a jab every year to be protected from the current circulting mutation.

I'm wondering more about if this was foreseeable during the initial studies. I'm a complete layman and maybe that was clear to everyone who is more educated on the subject.

The message that I got here in Germany though up until summer in the media (by experts) was that you're "done" after two. Not to get sterilizing immunity, but to be protected enough so the pandamic will finally get to a flu like endemic.

So I'm wondering if they just didnt know better at that time or left that out for "PR" reasons.
I am no vaccine expert but scientists go on the available science now and it depends on the government what it chooses to do and what it tells it’s people (often overly hopeful).

In NZ we have been fortunate enough to mostly watch the world have a pandemic due to fast lockdown, border restriction, elimination (but a relatively slow vaccine roll out, now going like the clappers with delta and now 81% of eligible pop vaccinated with most main pop areas above 90%), mandatory double Pfizer vaccination for the majority of the working pop, vaccine passes for most indoor activities, mask mandates and we are only just moving away from national lockdown with contact tracing to local which will really test our systems….

Also with summer holidays here - a big push to vaccinate age 5-12 before return to school in Feb and boosters starting in older age groups. We mostly have a compliant pop and good governance. They have never stated we had covid sorted, actually they apologised this week for not being prepared enough for delta, now we are awaiting omicron….and I suspect another vaccine drive for 3rd Pfizer doses will occur within 3-4 months. We are also fortunate that medicine to treat acute covid is now available and with all the restrictions etc has saved many lives where other countries lost so many. :cry:

I am not sure it will become like influenza, I think that is wishful thinking. I think virologists cannot predict the changes that may still occur and vaccines have to catch up with. That is why other measures just as important - masks, social distancing, ventilation etc, for many years.
 
Given that mutation rate is presumably related to transmission rate, I imagine one of the more significant risks with Omicron will be higher likelihood of further mutations.

I wonder whether someone knowledgable can expand on transmission vs host factors on viral mutation.

Some potentially relevant papers (which I aim to read this evening):
 
When I said 'like influenza' I meant with respect to needing annual vaccine boosters and new strains evolving all the time. I agree it would be wishful thinking if anyone suggested the severity level would be 'like influenza'. Though that also leads to hospitalizations and deaths every year too, but not so many usually.
 
possibly at risk of autoimmune sounds to me like those who already have autoimmune.

at least one of my tests is positive. anti-ds dna 27 or something which is supposedly highly specific to sle. but my "clinical pattern does not match". idk other tests. ana probably varies between normal and not etc.

anti-ds dna was not sky high numbers but also not normal. whether this is enough to make getting v a concern idk.

[i have a lot of health issues. this might end up being moot as i am probably doing emergency tooth extraction more than once including tomorrow [whyich will wipe me out anyway] and carer is eating out with parents etc.]

===

[and curve not going down [doctor said dpxycycline until] and omicron coming and probably here a lot alkready. so idk, risk permanent issues with perhaps pf. i hope i don't get the virus before then.]

[and i don't see studies really coming out about m.e. or safer-ish v like inhaler etc. approved soon and my other diseases and adverse reactions other than @ukxmrv and @TigerLilea and other. the severity of th adverse reaction matters but is not described in polls i think. slightly more neuropathy i will risk. major headache for 8 monhts is another question as i have hyperalgesia opioid intolerance and also for who knows what reason does not work no anti nausea works.]
 
but to be protected enough so the pandamic will finally get to a flu like endemic.

So I'm wondering if they just didnt know better at that time or left that out for "PR" reasons.
My understanding is that it takes many years for something like Covid to become the flu, and then eventually turn into the common cold. It doesn't happen in a year or two. One doctor I heard talking was saying 'in a hundred years time' it would be nothing more than a cold.
 
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We are also fortunate that medicine to treat acute covid is now available

Last I heard of the medicines was negative i.e. the UK bought a load of stuff that was effective in unvaccinated people --- but in vaccinated people (most of the UK population) it isn't effective. So £500 million down the drain?

I'm not sure what to make of the drugs used to treat serious illness - but I haven't looked.
 
My understanding is that it takes many years for something like Covid to become the flu, and then eventually turn into the common cold. It doesn't happen in a year or two. One doctor I heard talking was saying 'in a hundred years time' it would be nothing more than a cold.

It depends on the mutation rate, the types of selection factors (prexisting immunity, vaccines, medications, behaviours), and in turn the sheer number of people who are infected.

Infect billions of people rapidly and the process of forming new variants is sped up.

But assuming it is going to turn into a benign cold is still more wishful thinking than science. Remember that the assumption that viruses become mild is dependent on the population behaviour itself, explicitly selecting for more benign variants.
 
Given that most countries seem to charge ahead with herd immunity for the next few weeks, it raises the possibility that Omicron will not be the big threat, rather it could be whatever worse mutation(s) the massive spread of Omicron will inevitably cause, possibly more than one major variant. All while Delta is still spreading. Does being infected with one variant make you weaker to other variants? Other infections? We're about to find out.

Or not. But it's hard to imagine a scenario more fertile to the worst-case scenario. It really explains how it happened in the past. People weren't stupid during the Spanish flu, it's that we're still just as stupid about it today, even with everything we need to do better. All for the same reasons: muh quarterly profits.

Regardless, it's likely the most effective scenario to turn the largest mass disabling event in human history all the way to 11. Which frankly seems about to go exactly like this, as pre-enacted on The Simpsons:

homer-in-the-tar-pit.gif
 
I wonder whether someone knowledgable can expand on transmission vs host factors on viral mutation.

Some potentially relevant papers (which I aim to read this evening):
Not at all an expert, but logic might suggest that time might be a factor
(the more time you are infected/ill, the more replications, the greater chance of mutation). Then multiply that by number of people infected.
Then there are variants and conditions that produce a greater viral load (delta). ?
Obviously there’ll be others, some snow leopard mentioned.

Hope you find something in those articles to share? I’m out of reading ‘spoons’.
 
Good (paywalled) article by Tom Whipple addressing claims made by antivaxxers.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-to-argue-with-a-covid-antivaxxer-rdvwfs8gt

Summary:

Claim: Vaccines have caused mass deaths and disability.

Response: Vaccinate (almost) whole population and report anything that happens in the days afterwards, then there are going to be a whole lot of things reported (including a man's claim that his penis grew). Statisticians have identified a very slight extra risk of clotting with the AstraZeneca vaccine, with 75 reported fatal cases in the UK, and a slight risk of non-fatal heart problems with Pfizer. Nothing more.

Claim: Fit young footballers have died after vaccination.

Response: Last month a statistic was shared widely that claimed 108 footballers and coaches have died in 2021. If true, this is just another correlation: previous research backed by FIFA looked at 16 countries’ “sudden death registries”. In a normal year, across the world, it found 150 entries for players dying during football games alone.

Claim: Pharmaceutical companies are suppressing treatments, especially ivermectin, that would stop the pandemic.

Response: No evidence ivermectin is effective against Covid. The widely quoted Egyptian study was fraudulent. The first drug proven to treat Covid was a 60-year old steroid called dexamethasone that costs pennies, so hardly in the interests of 'Big Pharma'.

Claim: Data shows vaccines increase your chances of dying.

Response: Simpson's paradox. The average age of the vaccinated group is a lot higher than that of the unvaccinated one. Almost all children under ten are in the unvaccinated group. Almost all adults over 40 are in the vaccinated group. What the statistic really shows is that older people are more likely to die.

Claim: The figures for Covid deaths include people who died “with Covid” not just those who died “from Covid”.

Response: One set of figures does indeed record those who died within 28 days of a Covid diagnosis, 148,000. However, there is also a record taken of deaths in which Covid is mentioned on the death certificate. Currently, it stands at 173,000, which is 25,000 higher than the 28-day figure. It turns out the number of Covid cases who lived 28 days before dying more than offsets the number run over by buses.

Claim: Covid is no worse than a bad flu.

Response: In a normal year, it would not be unusual to have fewer than 10,000 flu deaths. In the past two years we have had the most stringent public health mitigations in history — enough that flu disappeared. And we have seen more than 150,000 Covid deaths. Covid isn’t flu.

Claim: Vaccines aren't effective against the omicron variant anyway.

Response: It is true the variant has blunted the effectiveness to a degree, but while two doses of AstraZeneca seem to have almost no effect against infection, a booster brought it back to almost 50%. And the vaccines hold out better at their primary job — stopping severe disease. According to the best estimates of the UK Health Security Agency, two doses still make you more than 50% less likely to end up in hospital. Three brings that up to almost 90%. There is a simpler way of understanding the effectiveness of vaccines. Last winter, 50,000 cases of Covid led to about 1,000 deaths. This autumn they led to 100.
 
The footballers could also be dying due to covid. I remember some research finding an increased risk of death in people 12 months after infection. Long covid symptoms can also appear weeks after the person has seemingly recovered from the infection.
 
Abstract
Acute illnesses are of significant concern for the health and performance of athletes. Sports medicine physicians face the challenge of promoting sufficient recovery and responding to the demands of the coaches and athletes. This chapter presents the evidence behind the risk factors for acute illness in athletes, the negative consequences of sports participation during illness and the recommendations for safe sports participation.

Risk factors for infection and illness may be intrinsic (e.g. postexercise suppression of the immune system, recent acute illness, female gender) and extrinsic (e.g. training load, nutrition, resting periods).

Fever during illness contributes to systemic symptoms such as headache and myalgia but also to dehydration, muscle breakdown and reduction in cardiometabolic function. The consequences of exercise during illnesses may be aggravation of illness, loss of muscle strength and endurance, cardiac complications, transmission of infection to others, neurological dysfunctions including coordination problems, rhabdomyolysis and in the worst case sudden death.

Recommendations for safe return to sport include clearance of infection allowing full recovery and thereafter gradual progress of exercise volume combined with monitoring of remaining symptoms of illness. Different actions can be taken to prevent acquiring, aggravating and spreading of infections by the athlete (e.g. hygiene, physical contact, covering of the body, sharing of equipment, nutrition), the coaches (e.g. individualised plan of training, competition, nutrition, recovery and recovery measures) and the physicians (monitor and implement illness prevention, identify and arrange for high-risk athletes, educate athletes and staff).

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7123245/
 
The footballers could also be dying due to covid. I remember some research finding an increased risk of death in people 12 months after infection. Long covid symptoms can also appear weeks after the person has seemingly recovered from the infection.

I haven't looked at the study the anti-vaxxers quote so cannot say for sure, but the players are a low-risk group and have been vaccinated, which is known to protect against serious illness, so this would seem unlikely, and hardly a good response to an anti-vaxxer.

The FIFA figure being used as a comparator is, of course, pre-Covid, so none of those did.
 
Good (paywalled) article by Tom Whipple addressing claims made by antivaxxers.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-to-argue-with-a-covid-antivaxxer-rdvwfs8gt

Summary:

Claim: Vaccines have caused mass deaths and disability.

Response: Vaccinate (almost) whole population and report anything that happens in the days afterwards, then there are going to be a whole lot of things reported (including a man's claim that his penis grew). Statisticians have identified a very slight extra risk of clotting with the AstraZeneca vaccine, with 75 reported fatal cases in the UK, and a slight risk of non-fatal heart problems with Pfizer. Nothing more.

It sounds more like a wind up and not a genuine attempt to engage with anti-vax and vax hesitant people.

Didn't read past the first one because I had a serious and long term reaction to my AZ jab. We know from the self reported Yellow card system in the UK that people are reporting adverse reactions. I know from my own experience that reactions are not being investigated or in some cases (it took several attempts for mine to be taken vaguely seriously) reported and that in the UK there is little in the way of investigating and reporting.

A quick search the other day trying to find an answer to my new ongoing painful vision problems shows that there are more scientific papers being published.

Using that "penis growth" as an example just belittles and attempt to make a joke of what I have gone through.
 
It looks like it's going to take a while to get my 3rd home visit jab. They are 'backlogged' and will call me if I already had 2 home visits (which I did).

I'm nervous about taking the elevator, only one operating with too many people in my building crammed inside.
 
Our experts are saying the same thing, Corona might become like the flu where vulnerable people are recommended to get a jab every year to be protected from the current circulting mutation.

I'm wondering more about if this was foreseeable during the initial studies. I'm a complete layman and maybe that was clear to everyone who is more educated on the subject.

The message that I got here in Germany though up until summer in the media (by experts) was that you're "done" after two. Not to get sterilizing immunity, but to be protected enough so the pandamic will finally get to a flu like endemic.

So I'm wondering if they just didnt know better at that time or left that out for "PR" reasons.

while I have no special letters after my name, i can say the nature of this entire class of virus is that it constantly mutates. Some of the mutations result in new versions of the virus. This is because of the essential steps of the virus replication, there’s nothing unique unexpected or usual about it.

source: Virology 101
 
I felt such relief today when it was announced that there will not be a fourth vaccination in the immediate future.

I am coming up to the first anniversary of my first AZ, and since then have pondered and oscillated about having the next vaccine. I have now had three all with unpleasant effects. Am so glad to be freed for a while of deciding the next step.
 
I felt such relief today when it was announced that there will not be a fourth vaccination in the immediate future.

I am coming up to the first anniversary of my first AZ, and since then have pondered and oscillated about having the next vaccine. I have now had three all with unpleasant effects. Am so glad to be freed for a while of deciding the next step.

I think actually having Covid (we don't know which one) has put me in a similar position.

It's nearly 10 months since my disastrous AZ vaccine which gave me new and severe problems.

Hopefully we will know more in the future and there will be alternative ways of protecting us from Covid (as we have no idea what it will do next) or treating it.
 
I think actually having Covid (we don't know which one) has put me in a similar position.

It's nearly 10 months since my disastrous AZ vaccine which gave me new and severe problems.

Hopefully we will know more in the future and there will be alternative ways of protecting us from Covid (as we have no idea what it will do next) or treating it.

Was the vaccine's side effects worst than the Covid infection?
 
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